KMA short-range forecasts and midday observations have locked trader consensus on a 25°C minimum for Seoul/Incheon on August 14, with the market assigning near-certainty to this outcome. The agency’s official guidance projects a morning low of exactly 25°C under mostly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and high humidity near 80%, consistent with mid-August regional climatology where overnight radiative cooling is limited by urban heat and moisture. Recent heatwave conditions have kept diurnal ranges compressed, but no model runs or station data indicate further drops below this threshold. A sudden convective shower or revised station reading could still shift the recorded minimum, though such developments appear improbable given current atmospheric stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 14?
Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 14?
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$16,247 Vol.
$16,247 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$16,247 Vol.
$16,247 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
20°C or below
$307 Vol.
No
21°C
$574 Vol.
No
22°C
$985 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,523 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,412 Vol.
No
25°C
$4,803 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$2,316 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,181 Vol.
No
28°C
$425 Vol.
No
29°C
$396 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$328 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.KMA short-range forecasts and midday observations have locked trader consensus on a 25°C minimum for Seoul/Incheon on August 14, with the market assigning near-certainty to this outcome. The agency’s official guidance projects a morning low of exactly 25°C under mostly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and high humidity near 80%, consistent with mid-August regional climatology where overnight radiative cooling is limited by urban heat and moisture. Recent heatwave conditions have kept diurnal ranges compressed, but no model runs or station data indicate further drops below this threshold. A sudden convective shower or revised station reading could still shift the recorded minimum, though such developments appear improbable given current atmospheric stability.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$16,247End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.KMA short-range forecasts and midday observations have locked trader consensus on a 25°C minimum for Seoul/Incheon on August 14, with the market assigning near-certainty to this outcome. The agency’s official guidance projects a morning low of exactly 25°C under mostly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and high humidity near 80%, consistent with mid-August regional climatology where overnight radiative cooling is limited by urban heat and moisture. Recent heatwave conditions have kept diurnal ranges compressed, but no model runs or station data indicate further drops below this threshold. A sudden convective shower or revised station reading could still shift the recorded minimum, though such developments appear improbable given current atmospheric stability.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,247End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
KMA short-range forecasts and midday observations have locked trader consensus on a 25°C minimum for Seoul/Incheon on August 14, with the market assigning near-certainty to this outcome. The agency’s official guidance projects a morning low of exactly 25°C under mostly cloudy skies, light northwest winds, and high humidity near 80%, consistent with mid-August regional climatology where overnight radiative cooling is limited by urban heat and moisture. Recent heatwave conditions have kept diurnal ranges compressed, but no model runs or station data indicate further drops below this threshold. A sudden convective shower or revised station reading could still shift the recorded minimum, though such developments appear improbable given current atmospheric stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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