Forecast models from agencies tracking western European synoptic patterns show a mild overnight minimum near 17°C in Paris on September 3, 2026, driven by persistent westerly flow under a broad high-pressure ridge that limits advection of cooler continental air. Recent surface observations and ensemble guidance indicate dew points near 15–17°C with light winds reducing radiational cooling potential, aligning with climatological norms for early September. Trader consensus at 96% implied probability for exactly 17°C reflects this strong model agreement and absence of disruptive fronts in the latest runs. A realistic challenge would require faster-than-expected clearing or an unforecast northerly shift that enhances nocturnal cooling below 16°C, though such divergence remains low-probability given current stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 3?
17°C 96%
15°C 6%
14°C 3%
16°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
11°C or below
1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
2%
14°C
3%
15°C
6%
16°C
3%
17°C
96%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
17°C 96%
15°C 6%
14°C 3%
16°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
11°C or below
$358 Vol.
1%
12°C
$195 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$111 Vol.
2%
14°C
$160 Vol.
3%
15°C
$501 Vol.
6%
16°C
$3,178 Vol.
3%
17°C
$2,402 Vol.
96%
18°C
$764 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$231 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$55 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$67 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies tracking western European synoptic patterns show a mild overnight minimum near 17°C in Paris on September 3, 2026, driven by persistent westerly flow under a broad high-pressure ridge that limits advection of cooler continental air. Recent surface observations and ensemble guidance indicate dew points near 15–17°C with light winds reducing radiational cooling potential, aligning with climatological norms for early September. Trader consensus at 96% implied probability for exactly 17°C reflects this strong model agreement and absence of disruptive fronts in the latest runs. A realistic challenge would require faster-than-expected clearing or an unforecast northerly shift that enhances nocturnal cooling below 16°C, though such divergence remains low-probability given current stability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$8,020End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies tracking western European synoptic patterns show a mild overnight minimum near 17°C in Paris on September 3, 2026, driven by persistent westerly flow under a broad high-pressure ridge that limits advection of cooler continental air. Recent surface observations and ensemble guidance indicate dew points near 15–17°C with light winds reducing radiational cooling potential, aligning with climatological norms for early September. Trader consensus at 96% implied probability for exactly 17°C reflects this strong model agreement and absence of disruptive fronts in the latest runs. A realistic challenge would require faster-than-expected clearing or an unforecast northerly shift that enhances nocturnal cooling below 16°C, though such divergence remains low-probability given current stability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,020End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies tracking western European synoptic patterns show a mild overnight minimum near 17°C in Paris on September 3, 2026, driven by persistent westerly flow under a broad high-pressure ridge that limits advection of cooler continental air. Recent surface observations and ensemble guidance indicate dew points near 15–17°C with light winds reducing radiational cooling potential, aligning with climatological norms for early September. Trader consensus at 96% implied probability for exactly 17°C reflects this strong model agreement and absence of disruptive fronts in the latest runs. A realistic challenge would require faster-than-expected clearing or an unforecast northerly shift that enhances nocturnal cooling below 16°C, though such divergence remains low-probability given current stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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