Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensemble models converge on a daytime maximum of 32°C in Beijing on August 14, consistent with mid-August climatology under the influence of the westward subtropical high and East Asian monsoon flow. This tight consensus, reflected in the market's 100% implied probability for 32°C, stems from verified observational trends and model agreement on surface heating balanced by moderate humidity and light winds. Afternoon convection or increased cloud cover from isolated thunderstorms could realistically cap the peak 1–2°C lower, while clearer skies might allow brief excursions toward 33°C before resolution by the official station maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 14?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 14?
32°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$65,174 Vol.
$65,174 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
100%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
32°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$65,174 Vol.
$65,174 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
25°C or below
$677 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,004 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$742 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,319 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$4,079 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$5,438 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$13,282 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$13,283 Vol.
100%
33°C
$7,821 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$9,376 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$7,152 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensemble models converge on a daytime maximum of 32°C in Beijing on August 14, consistent with mid-August climatology under the influence of the westward subtropical high and East Asian monsoon flow. This tight consensus, reflected in the market's 100% implied probability for 32°C, stems from verified observational trends and model agreement on surface heating balanced by moderate humidity and light winds. Afternoon convection or increased cloud cover from isolated thunderstorms could realistically cap the peak 1–2°C lower, while clearer skies might allow brief excursions toward 33°C before resolution by the official station maximum.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$65,174End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensemble models converge on a daytime maximum of 32°C in Beijing on August 14, consistent with mid-August climatology under the influence of the westward subtropical high and East Asian monsoon flow. This tight consensus, reflected in the market's 100% implied probability for 32°C, stems from verified observational trends and model agreement on surface heating balanced by moderate humidity and light winds. Afternoon convection or increased cloud cover from isolated thunderstorms could realistically cap the peak 1–2°C lower, while clearer skies might allow brief excursions toward 33°C before resolution by the official station maximum.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$65,174End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensemble models converge on a daytime maximum of 32°C in Beijing on August 14, consistent with mid-August climatology under the influence of the westward subtropical high and East Asian monsoon flow. This tight consensus, reflected in the market's 100% implied probability for 32°C, stems from verified observational trends and model agreement on surface heating balanced by moderate humidity and light winds. Afternoon convection or increased cloud cover from isolated thunderstorms could realistically cap the peak 1–2°C lower, while clearer skies might allow brief excursions toward 33°C before resolution by the official station maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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