Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional models project an overnight minimum of 25–26°C for August 21, 2026, under persistent cloudy, humid conditions with southerly flow and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with typical late-summer climatology, where urban heat-island effects and high dew points near 25°C keep lows from dropping further. The overwhelming 98.5% market-implied probability for exactly 25°C reflects this consensus from official guidance and recent model runs. A realistic challenge would require a sharp, unforecasted drop in humidity or clearer skies overnight that enhance cooling below the observed range, though such shifts appear unlikely given the stable synoptic pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 21?
25°C 99%
24°C 2%
23°C <1%
22°C or below <1%
$35,698 Vol.
$35,698 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
2%
25°C
99%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99%
24°C 2%
23°C <1%
22°C or below <1%
$35,698 Vol.
$35,698 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
22°C or below
$508 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$3,116 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$5,097 Vol.
2%
25°C
$8,494 Vol.
99%
26°C
$4,976 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$4,900 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$4,615 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,853 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,148 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$477 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$515 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional models project an overnight minimum of 25–26°C for August 21, 2026, under persistent cloudy, humid conditions with southerly flow and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with typical late-summer climatology, where urban heat-island effects and high dew points near 25°C keep lows from dropping further. The overwhelming 98.5% market-implied probability for exactly 25°C reflects this consensus from official guidance and recent model runs. A realistic challenge would require a sharp, unforecasted drop in humidity or clearer skies overnight that enhance cooling below the observed range, though such shifts appear unlikely given the stable synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$35,698End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional models project an overnight minimum of 25–26°C for August 21, 2026, under persistent cloudy, humid conditions with southerly flow and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with typical late-summer climatology, where urban heat-island effects and high dew points near 25°C keep lows from dropping further. The overwhelming 98.5% market-implied probability for exactly 25°C reflects this consensus from official guidance and recent model runs. A realistic challenge would require a sharp, unforecasted drop in humidity or clearer skies overnight that enhance cooling below the observed range, though such shifts appear unlikely given the stable synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$35,698End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional models project an overnight minimum of 25–26°C for August 21, 2026, under persistent cloudy, humid conditions with southerly flow and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with typical late-summer climatology, where urban heat-island effects and high dew points near 25°C keep lows from dropping further. The overwhelming 98.5% market-implied probability for exactly 25°C reflects this consensus from official guidance and recent model runs. A realistic challenge would require a sharp, unforecasted drop in humidity or clearer skies overnight that enhance cooling below the observed range, though such shifts appear unlikely given the stable synoptic pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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