**The official National Weather Service observation at Central Park—the primary NYC climate station—recorded a daily maximum of 84°F on August 20, 2026, anchoring the market’s 100% implied probability on the 84-85°F bin.** This outcome aligned closely with pre-event National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus, which projected a high in the low-to-mid 80s under mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies with light rain possible. The reading fell within 1°F of the long-term August normal (around 83°F) and reflected typical late-summer conditions without strong high pressure or clear skies that could push readings higher. Realistic challenges to this resolution remain limited but include any post-event data revision from the reporting station, use of an alternate official site with different microclimate influences, or an unusually large timing discrepancy in the peak reading. Such adjustments occur infrequently and would require documented measurement discrepancies to shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 20?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 20?
84-85°F 100.0%
71°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$57,648 Vol.
$57,648 Vol.
Aug 20, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
100%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
84-85°F 100.0%
71°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$57,648 Vol.
$57,648 Vol.
Aug 20, 2026
71°F or below
$30 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$554 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$1,550 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$4,843 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$7,079 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$7,591 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$7,165 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$11,997 Vol.
100%
86-87°F
$11,004 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$3,778 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$2,057 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The official National Weather Service observation at Central Park—the primary NYC climate station—recorded a daily maximum of 84°F on August 20, 2026, anchoring the market’s 100% implied probability on the 84-85°F bin.**
This outcome aligned closely with pre-event National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus, which projected a high in the low-to-mid 80s under mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies with light rain possible. The reading fell within 1°F of the long-term August normal (around 83°F) and reflected typical late-summer conditions without strong high pressure or clear skies that could push readings higher.
Realistic challenges to this resolution remain limited but include any post-event data revision from the reporting station, use of an alternate official site with different microclimate influences, or an unusually large timing discrepancy in the peak reading. Such adjustments occur infrequently and would require documented measurement discrepancies to shift the outcome.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volume
$57,648End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The official National Weather Service observation at Central Park—the primary NYC climate station—recorded a daily maximum of 84°F on August 20, 2026, anchoring the market’s 100% implied probability on the 84-85°F bin.**
This outcome aligned closely with pre-event National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus, which projected a high in the low-to-mid 80s under mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies with light rain possible. The reading fell within 1°F of the long-term August normal (around 83°F) and reflected typical late-summer conditions without strong high pressure or clear skies that could push readings higher.
Realistic challenges to this resolution remain limited but include any post-event data revision from the reporting station, use of an alternate official site with different microclimate influences, or an unusually large timing discrepancy in the peak reading. Such adjustments occur infrequently and would require documented measurement discrepancies to shift the outcome.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$57,648End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The official National Weather Service observation at Central Park—the primary NYC climate station—recorded a daily maximum of 84°F on August 20, 2026, anchoring the market’s 100% implied probability on the 84-85°F bin.** This outcome aligned closely with pre-event National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus, which projected a high in the low-to-mid 80s under mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies with light rain possible. The reading fell within 1°F of the long-term August normal (around 83°F) and reflected typical late-summer conditions without strong high pressure or clear skies that could push readings higher. Realistic challenges to this resolution remain limited but include any post-event data revision from the reporting station, use of an alternate official site with different microclimate influences, or an unusually large timing discrepancy in the peak reading. Such adjustments occur infrequently and would require documented measurement discrepancies to shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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