Recent ECMWF and regional model runs point to a daily maximum near 23°C in Milan, with increased cloud cover and scattered thundery showers suppressing solar heating in the Po Valley boundary layer. Ensemble spreads reflect modest uncertainty between 22–24°C, driven by small differences in predicted convective timing, moisture advection, and local urban heat island effects that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. These factors explain the tightly matched market-implied odds around 22–23°C, as traders weigh the balance between partial clearing allowing brief warming versus sustained instability capping temperatures below seasonal averages near 28–30°C. Official updates from Italian meteorological services will refine resolution criteria before the day ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 21?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 21?
22°C 25%
23°C 25%
24°C 20%
21°C 16%
NEW
$42,341 Vol.
NEW
$42,341 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
7%
21°C
16%
22°C
25%
23°C
25%
24°C
20%
25°C
11%
26°C or higher
7%
22°C 25%
23°C 25%
24°C 20%
21°C 16%
NEW
$42,341 Vol.
NEW
$42,341 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
16°C or below
$504 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$614 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$1,169 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$10,995 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,937 Vol.
7%
21°C
$2,531 Vol.
16%
22°C
$3,818 Vol.
25%
23°C
$5,577 Vol.
25%
24°C
$3,753 Vol.
20%
25°C
$4,534 Vol.
11%
26°C or higher
$5,909 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF and regional model runs point to a daily maximum near 23°C in Milan, with increased cloud cover and scattered thundery showers suppressing solar heating in the Po Valley boundary layer. Ensemble spreads reflect modest uncertainty between 22–24°C, driven by small differences in predicted convective timing, moisture advection, and local urban heat island effects that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. These factors explain the tightly matched market-implied odds around 22–23°C, as traders weigh the balance between partial clearing allowing brief warming versus sustained instability capping temperatures below seasonal averages near 28–30°C. Official updates from Italian meteorological services will refine resolution criteria before the day ends.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$42,341End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF and regional model runs point to a daily maximum near 23°C in Milan, with increased cloud cover and scattered thundery showers suppressing solar heating in the Po Valley boundary layer. Ensemble spreads reflect modest uncertainty between 22–24°C, driven by small differences in predicted convective timing, moisture advection, and local urban heat island effects that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. These factors explain the tightly matched market-implied odds around 22–23°C, as traders weigh the balance between partial clearing allowing brief warming versus sustained instability capping temperatures below seasonal averages near 28–30°C. Official updates from Italian meteorological services will refine resolution criteria before the day ends.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$42,341End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ECMWF and regional model runs point to a daily maximum near 23°C in Milan, with increased cloud cover and scattered thundery showers suppressing solar heating in the Po Valley boundary layer. Ensemble spreads reflect modest uncertainty between 22–24°C, driven by small differences in predicted convective timing, moisture advection, and local urban heat island effects that can alter peak readings by 1–2°C. These factors explain the tightly matched market-implied odds around 22–23°C, as traders weigh the balance between partial clearing allowing brief warming versus sustained instability capping temperatures below seasonal averages near 28–30°C. Official updates from Italian meteorological services will refine resolution criteria before the day ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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