Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a Tokyo high of 32°C on August 21 under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and moderate humidity, aligning closely with the market's 90.5% implied probability for that outcome. These conditions limit intense solar heating while preventing significant cooling from prolonged rain, consistent with typical late-summer patterns where daily maxima hover near 31–33°C. Ensemble model consensus supports this range, with low odds assigned to extremes because historical analogs and current steering patterns make rapid intensification or suppression unlikely before resolution. Unexpected clear skies or delayed precipitation could push readings higher, whereas earlier or heavier showers might cap the peak below 32°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 21?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 21?
32°C 94%
33°C 5%
34°C <1%
35°C or higher <1%
NEW
$58,869 Vol.
NEW
$58,869 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
94%
33°C
5%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
1%
32°C 94%
33°C 5%
34°C <1%
35°C or higher <1%
NEW
$58,869 Vol.
NEW
$58,869 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
25°C or below
$2,250 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,458 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,916 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,273 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$2,148 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$11,513 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$7,994 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$7,754 Vol.
94%
33°C
$7,924 Vol.
5%
34°C
$7,554 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$5,084 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a Tokyo high of 32°C on August 21 under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and moderate humidity, aligning closely with the market's 90.5% implied probability for that outcome. These conditions limit intense solar heating while preventing significant cooling from prolonged rain, consistent with typical late-summer patterns where daily maxima hover near 31–33°C. Ensemble model consensus supports this range, with low odds assigned to extremes because historical analogs and current steering patterns make rapid intensification or suppression unlikely before resolution. Unexpected clear skies or delayed precipitation could push readings higher, whereas earlier or heavier showers might cap the peak below 32°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$58,869End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a Tokyo high of 32°C on August 21 under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and moderate humidity, aligning closely with the market's 90.5% implied probability for that outcome. These conditions limit intense solar heating while preventing significant cooling from prolonged rain, consistent with typical late-summer patterns where daily maxima hover near 31–33°C. Ensemble model consensus supports this range, with low odds assigned to extremes because historical analogs and current steering patterns make rapid intensification or suppression unlikely before resolution. Unexpected clear skies or delayed precipitation could push readings higher, whereas earlier or heavier showers might cap the peak below 32°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$58,869End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a Tokyo high of 32°C on August 21 under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and moderate humidity, aligning closely with the market's 90.5% implied probability for that outcome. These conditions limit intense solar heating while preventing significant cooling from prolonged rain, consistent with typical late-summer patterns where daily maxima hover near 31–33°C. Ensemble model consensus supports this range, with low odds assigned to extremes because historical analogs and current steering patterns make rapid intensification or suppression unlikely before resolution. Unexpected clear skies or delayed precipitation could push readings higher, whereas earlier or heavier showers might cap the peak below 32°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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