Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting models indicate a maximum temperature near 30°C on August 21, driven by a broad low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea and Guangdong coast that sustains cloudy skies, scattered showers, and thunderstorms. These conditions limit solar insolation and surface heating, consistent with observed readings hovering around 28–30°C amid high humidity (75–95%) and light south-to-southeast winds. Market-implied odds favor 30°C or 31°C because ensemble guidance shows only modest afternoon warming potential before convective activity intensifies, with historical August baselines and current model consensus providing limited upside for 32°C or higher. Updated guidance through the afternoon will refine the final peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 21?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 21?
30°C 55%
31°C 33%
29°C 11%
32°C 5%
NEW
$122,065 Vol.
NEW
$122,065 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
11%
30°C
55%
31°C
33%
32°C
5%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 55%
31°C 33%
29°C 11%
32°C 5%
NEW
$122,065 Vol.
NEW
$122,065 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
24°C or below
$1,765 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$802 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,597 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$18,754 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$39,596 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$14,464 Vol.
11%
30°C
$9,930 Vol.
55%
31°C
$10,732 Vol.
33%
32°C
$7,568 Vol.
5%
33°C
$10,458 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$6,400 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting models indicate a maximum temperature near 30°C on August 21, driven by a broad low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea and Guangdong coast that sustains cloudy skies, scattered showers, and thunderstorms. These conditions limit solar insolation and surface heating, consistent with observed readings hovering around 28–30°C amid high humidity (75–95%) and light south-to-southeast winds. Market-implied odds favor 30°C or 31°C because ensemble guidance shows only modest afternoon warming potential before convective activity intensifies, with historical August baselines and current model consensus providing limited upside for 32°C or higher. Updated guidance through the afternoon will refine the final peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$122,065End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting models indicate a maximum temperature near 30°C on August 21, driven by a broad low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea and Guangdong coast that sustains cloudy skies, scattered showers, and thunderstorms. These conditions limit solar insolation and surface heating, consistent with observed readings hovering around 28–30°C amid high humidity (75–95%) and light south-to-southeast winds. Market-implied odds favor 30°C or 31°C because ensemble guidance shows only modest afternoon warming potential before convective activity intensifies, with historical August baselines and current model consensus providing limited upside for 32°C or higher. Updated guidance through the afternoon will refine the final peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$122,065End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and supporting models indicate a maximum temperature near 30°C on August 21, driven by a broad low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea and Guangdong coast that sustains cloudy skies, scattered showers, and thunderstorms. These conditions limit solar insolation and surface heating, consistent with observed readings hovering around 28–30°C amid high humidity (75–95%) and light south-to-southeast winds. Market-implied odds favor 30°C or 31°C because ensemble guidance shows only modest afternoon warming potential before convective activity intensifies, with historical August baselines and current model consensus providing limited upside for 32°C or higher. Updated guidance through the afternoon will refine the final peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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