**Persistent low-pressure trough and associated cloud cover over the northern South China Sea are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited, positioning 27°C as the most probable minimum temperature for Hong Kong on August 22.** Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance and supporting model consensus forecast a nighttime low of 27°C under mainly cloudy conditions with showers and thunderstorms, consistent with August climatology where typical minima range 26–28°C amid high humidity and weak pressure gradients. These factors suppress strong surface cooling compared to clearer nights. Ensemble guidance shows only modest downside risk to 26°C or 25°C if convective activity intensifies or winds freshen slightly, while upside to 28°C or higher remains constrained by the ongoing unsettled pattern. Seasonal outlooks noting normal-to-above-normal temperatures further support trader emphasis on the 26–27°C band, with new model runs or updated HKO briefings likely to refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 22?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 22?
27°C 42%
26°C 29%
25°C 22%
28°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
22%
26°C
29%
27°C
42%
28°C
12%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 42%
26°C 29%
25°C 22%
28°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
22°C or below
$660 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$141 Vol.
1%
24°C
$166 Vol.
3%
25°C
$336 Vol.
22%
26°C
$373 Vol.
29%
27°C
$304 Vol.
42%
28°C
$531 Vol.
12%
29°C
$1,148 Vol.
2%
30°C
$358 Vol.
1%
31°C
$501 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$516 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent low-pressure trough and associated cloud cover over the northern South China Sea are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited, positioning 27°C as the most probable minimum temperature for Hong Kong on August 22.**
Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance and supporting model consensus forecast a nighttime low of 27°C under mainly cloudy conditions with showers and thunderstorms, consistent with August climatology where typical minima range 26–28°C amid high humidity and weak pressure gradients. These factors suppress strong surface cooling compared to clearer nights. Ensemble guidance shows only modest downside risk to 26°C or 25°C if convective activity intensifies or winds freshen slightly, while upside to 28°C or higher remains constrained by the ongoing unsettled pattern. Seasonal outlooks noting normal-to-above-normal temperatures further support trader emphasis on the 26–27°C band, with new model runs or updated HKO briefings likely to refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$5,033End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Persistent low-pressure trough and associated cloud cover over the northern South China Sea are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited, positioning 27°C as the most probable minimum temperature for Hong Kong on August 22.**
Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance and supporting model consensus forecast a nighttime low of 27°C under mainly cloudy conditions with showers and thunderstorms, consistent with August climatology where typical minima range 26–28°C amid high humidity and weak pressure gradients. These factors suppress strong surface cooling compared to clearer nights. Ensemble guidance shows only modest downside risk to 26°C or 25°C if convective activity intensifies or winds freshen slightly, while upside to 28°C or higher remains constrained by the ongoing unsettled pattern. Seasonal outlooks noting normal-to-above-normal temperatures further support trader emphasis on the 26–27°C band, with new model runs or updated HKO briefings likely to refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,033End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent low-pressure trough and associated cloud cover over the northern South China Sea are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited, positioning 27°C as the most probable minimum temperature for Hong Kong on August 22.** Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance and supporting model consensus forecast a nighttime low of 27°C under mainly cloudy conditions with showers and thunderstorms, consistent with August climatology where typical minima range 26–28°C amid high humidity and weak pressure gradients. These factors suppress strong surface cooling compared to clearer nights. Ensemble guidance shows only modest downside risk to 26°C or 25°C if convective activity intensifies or winds freshen slightly, while upside to 28°C or higher remains constrained by the ongoing unsettled pattern. Seasonal outlooks noting normal-to-above-normal temperatures further support trader emphasis on the 26–27°C band, with new model runs or updated HKO briefings likely to refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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