Ongoing southwest monsoon activity across western Luzon is suppressing daytime heating in Manila through persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate winds, which limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling. PAGASA outlooks for August 21 project highs of 29–32°C with 60% rain probability, consistent with AccuWeather and other models showing maxima near 31–32°C under mostly overcast skies. Historical August climatology places average highs around 30–31°C, with monsoon-influenced days rarely exceeding 32–33°C. This consensus on cloud-reduced peaks drives the strong market weighting toward 32°C, while modest odds on 33°C reflect limited potential for brief clearing; updated PAGASA briefings and model runs remain key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 21?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 21?
32°C 96%
33°C 4%
34°C <1%
35°C <1%
$34,015 Vol.
$34,015 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
96%
33°C
4%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 96%
33°C 4%
34°C <1%
35°C <1%
$34,015 Vol.
$34,015 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
26°C or below
$326 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$881 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,473 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,267 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$7,448 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$4,375 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$9,564 Vol.
96%
33°C
$3,435 Vol.
4%
34°C
$2,638 Vol.
1%
35°C
$1,314 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$292 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing southwest monsoon activity across western Luzon is suppressing daytime heating in Manila through persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate winds, which limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling. PAGASA outlooks for August 21 project highs of 29–32°C with 60% rain probability, consistent with AccuWeather and other models showing maxima near 31–32°C under mostly overcast skies. Historical August climatology places average highs around 30–31°C, with monsoon-influenced days rarely exceeding 32–33°C. This consensus on cloud-reduced peaks drives the strong market weighting toward 32°C, while modest odds on 33°C reflect limited potential for brief clearing; updated PAGASA briefings and model runs remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$34,015End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing southwest monsoon activity across western Luzon is suppressing daytime heating in Manila through persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate winds, which limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling. PAGASA outlooks for August 21 project highs of 29–32°C with 60% rain probability, consistent with AccuWeather and other models showing maxima near 31–32°C under mostly overcast skies. Historical August climatology places average highs around 30–31°C, with monsoon-influenced days rarely exceeding 32–33°C. This consensus on cloud-reduced peaks drives the strong market weighting toward 32°C, while modest odds on 33°C reflect limited potential for brief clearing; updated PAGASA briefings and model runs remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$34,015End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing southwest monsoon activity across western Luzon is suppressing daytime heating in Manila through persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate winds, which limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling. PAGASA outlooks for August 21 project highs of 29–32°C with 60% rain probability, consistent with AccuWeather and other models showing maxima near 31–32°C under mostly overcast skies. Historical August climatology places average highs around 30–31°C, with monsoon-influenced days rarely exceeding 32–33°C. This consensus on cloud-reduced peaks drives the strong market weighting toward 32°C, while modest odds on 33°C reflect limited potential for brief clearing; updated PAGASA briefings and model runs remain key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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