Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicate a minimum temperature near 22–23°C for Chengdu on September 3, 2026, under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds and no significant cooling mechanisms. Persistent high-pressure influence and typical early-September climatology—featuring diurnal ranges of 10–12°C and overnight lows rarely dropping below 20°C—support trader consensus around the 23°C outcome at 96.5% implied probability. Minor model variations in boundary-layer mixing or localized cloud cover could produce a 1°C deviation, but sustained radiative cooling sufficient for 21°C or lower appears unlikely without an unexpected frontal passage. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance later today will provide the final observational confirmation for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on September 3?
23°C 97%
21°C 9%
20°C 6%
22°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
6%
21°C
9%
22°C
4%
23°C
97%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
23°C 97%
21°C 9%
20°C 6%
22°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
17°C or below
$112 Vol.
1%
18°C
$109 Vol.
1%
19°C
$136 Vol.
2%
20°C
$164 Vol.
6%
21°C
$170 Vol.
9%
22°C
$87 Vol.
4%
23°C
$316 Vol.
97%
24°C
$160 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$55 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$40 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicate a minimum temperature near 22–23°C for Chengdu on September 3, 2026, under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds and no significant cooling mechanisms. Persistent high-pressure influence and typical early-September climatology—featuring diurnal ranges of 10–12°C and overnight lows rarely dropping below 20°C—support trader consensus around the 23°C outcome at 96.5% implied probability. Minor model variations in boundary-layer mixing or localized cloud cover could produce a 1°C deviation, but sustained radiative cooling sufficient for 21°C or lower appears unlikely without an unexpected frontal passage. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance later today will provide the final observational confirmation for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,369End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicate a minimum temperature near 22–23°C for Chengdu on September 3, 2026, under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds and no significant cooling mechanisms. Persistent high-pressure influence and typical early-September climatology—featuring diurnal ranges of 10–12°C and overnight lows rarely dropping below 20°C—support trader consensus around the 23°C outcome at 96.5% implied probability. Minor model variations in boundary-layer mixing or localized cloud cover could produce a 1°C deviation, but sustained radiative cooling sufficient for 21°C or lower appears unlikely without an unexpected frontal passage. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance later today will provide the final observational confirmation for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,369End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicate a minimum temperature near 22–23°C for Chengdu on September 3, 2026, under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds and no significant cooling mechanisms. Persistent high-pressure influence and typical early-September climatology—featuring diurnal ranges of 10–12°C and overnight lows rarely dropping below 20°C—support trader consensus around the 23°C outcome at 96.5% implied probability. Minor model variations in boundary-layer mixing or localized cloud cover could produce a 1°C deviation, but sustained radiative cooling sufficient for 21°C or lower appears unlikely without an unexpected frontal passage. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance later today will provide the final observational confirmation for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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