Current forecasts from multiple weather models point to a minimum temperature in Busan on September 4 near 23–24°C, with strong northeasterly winds of 15–30 km/h and persistent cloud cover limiting overnight radiative cooling. These conditions favor advection of maritime air over the city rather than clear-sky heat loss, keeping dew points elevated around 19–20°C and preventing sharper drops. Recent model runs show minor disagreements on exact timing of the overnight minimum and any localized sea-breeze influences, which explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 23–24°C at roughly 50% each. Historical September baselines near 22°C provide context, but the current synoptic pattern supports the higher range. Updated model outputs and official observations tomorrow morning will refine resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Busan on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Busan on September 4?
21°C 98%
22°C 98%
25°C 98%
26°C 98%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
20°C or below
94%
21°C
98%
22°C
98%
23°C
50%
24°C
50%
25°C
98%
26°C
98%
27°C
98%
28°C
8%
29°C
8%
30°C or higher
98%
21°C 98%
22°C 98%
25°C 98%
26°C 98%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
94%
21°C
$0 Vol.
98%
22°C
$0 Vol.
98%
23°C
$0 Vol.
50%
24°C
$0 Vol.
50%
25°C
$0 Vol.
98%
26°C
$0 Vol.
98%
27°C
$0 Vol.
98%
28°C
$0 Vol.
8%
29°C
$0 Vol.
8%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple weather models point to a minimum temperature in Busan on September 4 near 23–24°C, with strong northeasterly winds of 15–30 km/h and persistent cloud cover limiting overnight radiative cooling. These conditions favor advection of maritime air over the city rather than clear-sky heat loss, keeping dew points elevated around 19–20°C and preventing sharper drops. Recent model runs show minor disagreements on exact timing of the overnight minimum and any localized sea-breeze influences, which explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 23–24°C at roughly 50% each. Historical September baselines near 22°C provide context, but the current synoptic pattern supports the higher range. Updated model outputs and official observations tomorrow morning will refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple weather models point to a minimum temperature in Busan on September 4 near 23–24°C, with strong northeasterly winds of 15–30 km/h and persistent cloud cover limiting overnight radiative cooling. These conditions favor advection of maritime air over the city rather than clear-sky heat loss, keeping dew points elevated around 19–20°C and preventing sharper drops. Recent model runs show minor disagreements on exact timing of the overnight minimum and any localized sea-breeze influences, which explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 23–24°C at roughly 50% each. Historical September baselines near 22°C provide context, but the current synoptic pattern supports the higher range. Updated model outputs and official observations tomorrow morning will refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple weather models point to a minimum temperature in Busan on September 4 near 23–24°C, with strong northeasterly winds of 15–30 km/h and persistent cloud cover limiting overnight radiative cooling. These conditions favor advection of maritime air over the city rather than clear-sky heat loss, keeping dew points elevated around 19–20°C and preventing sharper drops. Recent model runs show minor disagreements on exact timing of the overnight minimum and any localized sea-breeze influences, which explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 23–24°C at roughly 50% each. Historical September baselines near 22°C provide context, but the current synoptic pattern supports the higher range. Updated model outputs and official observations tomorrow morning will refine resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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