Persistent cloud cover, showers, and cooler air advection behind a frontal passage are suppressing Toronto's peak temperature on August 23 well below the late-August climatological average near 25.5°C, anchoring market-implied odds around 20–22°C. Environment Canada guidance and ensemble model runs converge on a daytime maximum of 21–22°C under mostly cloudy skies with a 40% chance of showers or thunderstorms, limiting insolation and favoring westerly flow. The narrow spread between 21°C (33.5%), 20°C (26.5%), and 22°C (23.5%) reflects remaining uncertainty in shower timing and intensity rather than model disagreement. Updated morning guidance from official agencies will provide the next resolution-relevant data point before the day's maximum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on August 23?
Highest temperature in Toronto on August 23?
21°C 34%
20°C 27%
22°C 24%
19°C 9%
NEW
$11,100 Vol.
NEW
$11,100 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
9%
20°C
27%
21°C
34%
22°C
24%
23°C
4%
24°C
2%
25°C or higher
1%
21°C 34%
20°C 27%
22°C 24%
19°C 9%
NEW
$11,100 Vol.
NEW
$11,100 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
15°C or below
$771 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$999 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$380 Vol.
1%
18°C
$440 Vol.
2%
19°C
$1,298 Vol.
9%
20°C
$1,906 Vol.
27%
21°C
$1,098 Vol.
34%
22°C
$2,213 Vol.
24%
23°C
$869 Vol.
4%
24°C
$488 Vol.
2%
25°C or higher
$637 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, showers, and cooler air advection behind a frontal passage are suppressing Toronto's peak temperature on August 23 well below the late-August climatological average near 25.5°C, anchoring market-implied odds around 20–22°C. Environment Canada guidance and ensemble model runs converge on a daytime maximum of 21–22°C under mostly cloudy skies with a 40% chance of showers or thunderstorms, limiting insolation and favoring westerly flow. The narrow spread between 21°C (33.5%), 20°C (26.5%), and 22°C (23.5%) reflects remaining uncertainty in shower timing and intensity rather than model disagreement. Updated morning guidance from official agencies will provide the next resolution-relevant data point before the day's maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$11,100End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, showers, and cooler air advection behind a frontal passage are suppressing Toronto's peak temperature on August 23 well below the late-August climatological average near 25.5°C, anchoring market-implied odds around 20–22°C. Environment Canada guidance and ensemble model runs converge on a daytime maximum of 21–22°C under mostly cloudy skies with a 40% chance of showers or thunderstorms, limiting insolation and favoring westerly flow. The narrow spread between 21°C (33.5%), 20°C (26.5%), and 22°C (23.5%) reflects remaining uncertainty in shower timing and intensity rather than model disagreement. Updated morning guidance from official agencies will provide the next resolution-relevant data point before the day's maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,100End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent cloud cover, showers, and cooler air advection behind a frontal passage are suppressing Toronto's peak temperature on August 23 well below the late-August climatological average near 25.5°C, anchoring market-implied odds around 20–22°C. Environment Canada guidance and ensemble model runs converge on a daytime maximum of 21–22°C under mostly cloudy skies with a 40% chance of showers or thunderstorms, limiting insolation and favoring westerly flow. The narrow spread between 21°C (33.5%), 20°C (26.5%), and 22°C (23.5%) reflects remaining uncertainty in shower timing and intensity rather than model disagreement. Updated morning guidance from official agencies will provide the next resolution-relevant data point before the day's maximum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions