Latest meteorological forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting models position a daytime high of 28°C as the most probable outcome for Toronto on August 14, with 27°C and 29°C as close alternatives, aligning with market-implied odds of 56.5%, 26.5%, and 10.5%. Mid-August climatology typically features highs near 25–27°C, moderated by Lake Ontario's lake-breeze effect that often caps peak temperatures, while high-pressure ridging supports mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions and modest warming. Recent model runs show limited variability from frontal influences or humidity spikes, keeping the consensus tightly clustered; any last-minute shifts in observed surface temperatures or updated guidance could adjust probabilities within the narrow 27–29°C band before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on August 14?
Highest temperature in Toronto on August 14?
28°C 53%
27°C 38%
29°C 11%
30°C <1%
$24,259 Vol.
$24,259 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
38%
28°C
53%
29°C
11%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 53%
27°C 38%
29°C 11%
30°C <1%
$24,259 Vol.
$24,259 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
23°C or below
$2,666 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,626 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$3,708 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,571 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$4,882 Vol.
38%
28°C
$3,402 Vol.
53%
29°C
$3,251 Vol.
11%
30°C
$851 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$708 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$382 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$211 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest meteorological forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting models position a daytime high of 28°C as the most probable outcome for Toronto on August 14, with 27°C and 29°C as close alternatives, aligning with market-implied odds of 56.5%, 26.5%, and 10.5%. Mid-August climatology typically features highs near 25–27°C, moderated by Lake Ontario's lake-breeze effect that often caps peak temperatures, while high-pressure ridging supports mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions and modest warming. Recent model runs show limited variability from frontal influences or humidity spikes, keeping the consensus tightly clustered; any last-minute shifts in observed surface temperatures or updated guidance could adjust probabilities within the narrow 27–29°C band before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$24,259End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest meteorological forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting models position a daytime high of 28°C as the most probable outcome for Toronto on August 14, with 27°C and 29°C as close alternatives, aligning with market-implied odds of 56.5%, 26.5%, and 10.5%. Mid-August climatology typically features highs near 25–27°C, moderated by Lake Ontario's lake-breeze effect that often caps peak temperatures, while high-pressure ridging supports mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions and modest warming. Recent model runs show limited variability from frontal influences or humidity spikes, keeping the consensus tightly clustered; any last-minute shifts in observed surface temperatures or updated guidance could adjust probabilities within the narrow 27–29°C band before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$24,259End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest meteorological forecasts from Environment Canada and supporting models position a daytime high of 28°C as the most probable outcome for Toronto on August 14, with 27°C and 29°C as close alternatives, aligning with market-implied odds of 56.5%, 26.5%, and 10.5%. Mid-August climatology typically features highs near 25–27°C, moderated by Lake Ontario's lake-breeze effect that often caps peak temperatures, while high-pressure ridging supports mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions and modest warming. Recent model runs show limited variability from frontal influences or humidity spikes, keeping the consensus tightly clustered; any last-minute shifts in observed surface temperatures or updated guidance could adjust probabilities within the narrow 27–29°C band before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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