Latest short-range forecast models from Environment Canada and the Global Forecast System show Toronto's maximum temperature on August 15 likely settling between 25 °C and 26 °C, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. Surface high pressure and modest southerly flow are expected to limit daytime heating, while variable cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture introduce uncertainty in the exact peak. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the 24-hour lead time, yet small shifts in timing of any passing weak front or changes in insolation could tip the reading one degree either way. Traders are therefore watching the next model runs and local observations for confirmation ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on August 15?
Highest temperature in Toronto on August 15?
26°C 42%
25°C 36%
24°C 11%
27°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
11%
25°C
36%
26°C
42%
27°C
8%
28°C
2%
29°C or higher
1%
26°C 42%
25°C 36%
24°C 11%
27°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
19°C or below
$97 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$87 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$455 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$404 Vol.
2%
23°C
$442 Vol.
2%
24°C
$394 Vol.
11%
25°C
$215 Vol.
36%
26°C
$1,644 Vol.
42%
27°C
$386 Vol.
8%
28°C
$195 Vol.
2%
29°C or higher
$186 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest short-range forecast models from Environment Canada and the Global Forecast System show Toronto's maximum temperature on August 15 likely settling between 25 °C and 26 °C, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. Surface high pressure and modest southerly flow are expected to limit daytime heating, while variable cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture introduce uncertainty in the exact peak. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the 24-hour lead time, yet small shifts in timing of any passing weak front or changes in insolation could tip the reading one degree either way. Traders are therefore watching the next model runs and local observations for confirmation ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$4,504End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest short-range forecast models from Environment Canada and the Global Forecast System show Toronto's maximum temperature on August 15 likely settling between 25 °C and 26 °C, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. Surface high pressure and modest southerly flow are expected to limit daytime heating, while variable cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture introduce uncertainty in the exact peak. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the 24-hour lead time, yet small shifts in timing of any passing weak front or changes in insolation could tip the reading one degree either way. Traders are therefore watching the next model runs and local observations for confirmation ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,504End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest short-range forecast models from Environment Canada and the Global Forecast System show Toronto's maximum temperature on August 15 likely settling between 25 °C and 26 °C, driving the tight market split between those two outcomes. Surface high pressure and modest southerly flow are expected to limit daytime heating, while variable cloud cover and boundary-layer moisture introduce uncertainty in the exact peak. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the 24-hour lead time, yet small shifts in timing of any passing weak front or changes in insolation could tip the reading one degree either way. Traders are therefore watching the next model runs and local observations for confirmation ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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