Forecasts from agencies including the BBC and Met Office highlight sunny skies and light southerly winds over Munich on August 15, enabling strong daytime solar heating and positioning 35 °C as the dominant outcome at 72.5 % implied probability. These conditions align with peak readings in the 34–36 °C range under clear anticyclonic flow, consistent with 34 °C (19 %) and 36 °C (10 %) markets. Typical August highs average near 23–25 °C, so the elevated values reflect above-normal warmth rather than an extreme heatwave. Traders appear to weight the consensus model guidance on minimal cloud cover and weak winds, which minimize mixing and maximize surface temperatures before any evening cooling. New observational data or revised short-range guidance could still shift the exact maximum within the narrow 34–36 °C window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 15?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 15?
35°C 73%
34°C 13%
36°C 10%
33°C <1%
$54,687 Vol.
$54,687 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
13%
35°C
73%
36°C
10%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 73%
34°C 13%
36°C 10%
33°C <1%
$54,687 Vol.
$54,687 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
29°C or below
$226 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$175 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$829 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$3,628 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$9,561 Vol.
1%
34°C
$12,720 Vol.
13%
35°C
$12,785 Vol.
73%
36°C
$10,435 Vol.
10%
37°C
$2,954 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$900 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$475 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from agencies including the BBC and Met Office highlight sunny skies and light southerly winds over Munich on August 15, enabling strong daytime solar heating and positioning 35 °C as the dominant outcome at 72.5 % implied probability. These conditions align with peak readings in the 34–36 °C range under clear anticyclonic flow, consistent with 34 °C (19 %) and 36 °C (10 %) markets. Typical August highs average near 23–25 °C, so the elevated values reflect above-normal warmth rather than an extreme heatwave. Traders appear to weight the consensus model guidance on minimal cloud cover and weak winds, which minimize mixing and maximize surface temperatures before any evening cooling. New observational data or revised short-range guidance could still shift the exact maximum within the narrow 34–36 °C window.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$54,687End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from agencies including the BBC and Met Office highlight sunny skies and light southerly winds over Munich on August 15, enabling strong daytime solar heating and positioning 35 °C as the dominant outcome at 72.5 % implied probability. These conditions align with peak readings in the 34–36 °C range under clear anticyclonic flow, consistent with 34 °C (19 %) and 36 °C (10 %) markets. Typical August highs average near 23–25 °C, so the elevated values reflect above-normal warmth rather than an extreme heatwave. Traders appear to weight the consensus model guidance on minimal cloud cover and weak winds, which minimize mixing and maximize surface temperatures before any evening cooling. New observational data or revised short-range guidance could still shift the exact maximum within the narrow 34–36 °C window.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$54,687End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from agencies including the BBC and Met Office highlight sunny skies and light southerly winds over Munich on August 15, enabling strong daytime solar heating and positioning 35 °C as the dominant outcome at 72.5 % implied probability. These conditions align with peak readings in the 34–36 °C range under clear anticyclonic flow, consistent with 34 °C (19 %) and 36 °C (10 %) markets. Typical August highs average near 23–25 °C, so the elevated values reflect above-normal warmth rather than an extreme heatwave. Traders appear to weight the consensus model guidance on minimal cloud cover and weak winds, which minimize mixing and maximize surface temperatures before any evening cooling. New observational data or revised short-range guidance could still shift the exact maximum within the narrow 34–36 °C window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions