Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models indicate Houston highs on August 15 will most likely reach the mid-90s, aligning with the market’s leading 96-97°F (45%) and 94-95°F (33.5%) bins. Typical late-summer conditions—strong daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, high humidity, and only isolated afternoon thunderstorms—are expected to limit significant cooling while preventing extreme outliers. Historical August averages near 95°F and the absence of incoming fronts or tropical moisture shifts reinforce this narrow range, with traders weighting model consensus heavily ahead of final observations from official reporting stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on August 15?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 15?
96-97°F 45%
94-95°F 34%
98-99°F 11%
92-93°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
85°F or below
<1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
2%
92-93°F
6%
94-95°F
34%
96-97°F
45%
98-99°F
11%
100-101°F
3%
102-103°F
<1%
104°F or higher
<1%
96-97°F 45%
94-95°F 34%
98-99°F 11%
92-93°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
85°F or below
$119 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$145 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$186 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$126 Vol.
2%
92-93°F
$164 Vol.
6%
94-95°F
$347 Vol.
34%
96-97°F
$1,617 Vol.
45%
98-99°F
$257 Vol.
11%
100-101°F
$50 Vol.
3%
102-103°F
$236 Vol.
<1%
104°F or higher
$366 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models indicate Houston highs on August 15 will most likely reach the mid-90s, aligning with the market’s leading 96-97°F (45%) and 94-95°F (33.5%) bins. Typical late-summer conditions—strong daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, high humidity, and only isolated afternoon thunderstorms—are expected to limit significant cooling while preventing extreme outliers. Historical August averages near 95°F and the absence of incoming fronts or tropical moisture shifts reinforce this narrow range, with traders weighting model consensus heavily ahead of final observations from official reporting stations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$3,613End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models indicate Houston highs on August 15 will most likely reach the mid-90s, aligning with the market’s leading 96-97°F (45%) and 94-95°F (33.5%) bins. Typical late-summer conditions—strong daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, high humidity, and only isolated afternoon thunderstorms—are expected to limit significant cooling while preventing extreme outliers. Historical August averages near 95°F and the absence of incoming fronts or tropical moisture shifts reinforce this narrow range, with traders weighting model consensus heavily ahead of final observations from official reporting stations.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,613End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models indicate Houston highs on August 15 will most likely reach the mid-90s, aligning with the market’s leading 96-97°F (45%) and 94-95°F (33.5%) bins. Typical late-summer conditions—strong daytime heating under partly cloudy skies, high humidity, and only isolated afternoon thunderstorms—are expected to limit significant cooling while preventing extreme outliers. Historical August averages near 95°F and the absence of incoming fronts or tropical moisture shifts reinforce this narrow range, with traders weighting model consensus heavily ahead of final observations from official reporting stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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