Traders assign the highest implied probability to Elon Musk posting 40-64 times over the Aug. 22-24 weekend because his X activity typically moderates during quieter periods without major product launches, regulatory updates, or high-stakes SpaceX or Tesla developments. Historical patterns show weekend volumes often cluster in the moderate range when news cycles slow and personal or operational commitments limit real-time commentary on AI, Grok updates, or industry topics. The elevated odds on sub-40 outcomes reflect the possibility of an even lighter stretch, while higher brackets would require unexpected surges from breaking events that have not materialized in recent days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 39%
<40 25%
65-89 23%
90-114 11%
NEW
$10,434 Vol.
NEW
$10,434 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
<40
25%
40-64
39%
65-89
23%
90-114
11%
115-139
4%
140-164
1%
165-189
1%
190-214
1%
215-239
1%
240+
1%
40-64 39%
<40 25%
65-89 23%
90-114 11%
NEW
$10,434 Vol.
NEW
$10,434 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
<40
$4,218 Vol.
25%
40-64
$2,121 Vol.
39%
65-89
$499 Vol.
23%
90-114
$1,368 Vol.
11%
115-139
$784 Vol.
4%
140-164
$281 Vol.
1%
165-189
$271 Vol.
1%
190-214
$271 Vol.
1%
215-239
$316 Vol.
1%
240+
$306 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders assign the highest implied probability to Elon Musk posting 40-64 times over the Aug. 22-24 weekend because his X activity typically moderates during quieter periods without major product launches, regulatory updates, or high-stakes SpaceX or Tesla developments. Historical patterns show weekend volumes often cluster in the moderate range when news cycles slow and personal or operational commitments limit real-time commentary on AI, Grok updates, or industry topics. The elevated odds on sub-40 outcomes reflect the possibility of an even lighter stretch, while higher brackets would require unexpected surges from breaking events that have not materialized in recent days.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$10,434End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders assign the highest implied probability to Elon Musk posting 40-64 times over the Aug. 22-24 weekend because his X activity typically moderates during quieter periods without major product launches, regulatory updates, or high-stakes SpaceX or Tesla developments. Historical patterns show weekend volumes often cluster in the moderate range when news cycles slow and personal or operational commitments limit real-time commentary on AI, Grok updates, or industry topics. The elevated odds on sub-40 outcomes reflect the possibility of an even lighter stretch, while higher brackets would require unexpected surges from breaking events that have not materialized in recent days.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$10,434End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability to Elon Musk posting 40-64 times over the Aug. 22-24 weekend because his X activity typically moderates during quieter periods without major product launches, regulatory updates, or high-stakes SpaceX or Tesla developments. Historical patterns show weekend volumes often cluster in the moderate range when news cycles slow and personal or operational commitments limit real-time commentary on AI, Grok updates, or industry topics. The elevated odds on sub-40 outcomes reflect the possibility of an even lighter stretch, while higher brackets would require unexpected surges from breaking events that have not materialized in recent days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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