Skip to main content
icon for What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?

What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?

icon for What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?

What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?

Aug 25

Aug 25

Don’t Say Good Luck 96.0%

To Catch a Cheater 2.4%

Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing 1.9%

The Last House <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Don’t Say Good Luck 96.0%

To Catch a Cheater 2.4%

Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing 1.9%

The Last House <1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Don’t Say Good Luck

Don’t Say Good Luck

$2,801 Vol.

96%

icon for To Catch a Cheater

To Catch a Cheater

$153 Vol.

2%

icon for Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing

Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing

$120 Vol.

2%

icon for The Last House

The Last House

$282 Vol.

1%

icon for Extinction

Extinction

$120 Vol.

1%

icon for Arthur the King

Arthur the King

$242 Vol.

<1%

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Don’t Say Good Luck commands a 95.9% implied probability as the week’s top US Netflix title, reflecting dominant early viewership metrics and platform-wide promotional support that have established clear audience momentum. Traders interpret these figures as signaling sustained engagement likely to outpace competitors through the final tallies. Realistic upset scenarios remain limited but include a sharp late-week acceleration in streams for titles like Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing or To Catch a Cheater, potentially triggered by viral social amplification or stronger-than-expected critical reception that shifts daily rankings before the period closes.

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically.

The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies.

If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$3,718
End Date
Aug 25, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:20 PM ET
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Don’t Say Good Luck commands a 95.9% implied probability as the week’s top US Netflix title, reflecting dominant early viewership metrics and platform-wide promotional support that have established clear audience momentum. Traders interpret these figures as signaling sustained engagement likely to outpace competitors through the final tallies. Realistic upset scenarios remain limited but include a sharp late-week acceleration in streams for titles like Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing or To Catch a Cheater, potentially triggered by viral social amplification or stronger-than-expected critical reception that shifts daily rankings before the period closes.

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically.

The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies.

If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$3,718
End Date
Aug 25, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:20 PM ET
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Don’t Say Good Luck" at 96%, followed by "To Catch a Cheater" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 19, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?" is "Don’t Say Good Luck" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "To Catch a Cheater" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.