Recent forecast models from sources including MetService and international ensembles indicate Wellington's overnight low on September 24 will likely settle near 7–8°C under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northwesterlies following a southerly change. This aligns with September climatology, where average minimums hover around 7–9°C amid transitional spring conditions that favor radiative cooling on calm nights. Trader consensus reflected in the elevated 46% implied probability for 11°C or higher and the clustering around 6–7°C outcomes stems from model consensus on modest warming trends and limited cold-air advection risk, though updated runs could shift probabilities if stronger southerlies develop. No major data releases are scheduled before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 24?
11°C or higher 87%
1°C or below 43%
4°C 38%
5°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
1°C or below
43%
2°C
14%
3°C
16%
4°C
38%
5°C
38%
6°C
31%
7°C
25%
8°C
21%
9°C
21%
10°C
17%
11°C or higher
87%
11°C or higher 87%
1°C or below 43%
4°C 38%
5°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
1°C or below
$0 Vol.
43%
2°C
$0 Vol.
14%
3°C
$0 Vol.
16%
4°C
$0 Vol.
38%
5°C
$0 Vol.
38%
6°C
$0 Vol.
31%
7°C
$0 Vol.
25%
8°C
$0 Vol.
21%
9°C
$5 Vol.
21%
10°C
$0 Vol.
17%
11°C or higher
$0 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including MetService and international ensembles indicate Wellington's overnight low on September 24 will likely settle near 7–8°C under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northwesterlies following a southerly change. This aligns with September climatology, where average minimums hover around 7–9°C amid transitional spring conditions that favor radiative cooling on calm nights. Trader consensus reflected in the elevated 46% implied probability for 11°C or higher and the clustering around 6–7°C outcomes stems from model consensus on modest warming trends and limited cold-air advection risk, though updated runs could shift probabilities if stronger southerlies develop. No major data releases are scheduled before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including MetService and international ensembles indicate Wellington's overnight low on September 24 will likely settle near 7–8°C under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northwesterlies following a southerly change. This aligns with September climatology, where average minimums hover around 7–9°C amid transitional spring conditions that favor radiative cooling on calm nights. Trader consensus reflected in the elevated 46% implied probability for 11°C or higher and the clustering around 6–7°C outcomes stems from model consensus on modest warming trends and limited cold-air advection risk, though updated runs could shift probabilities if stronger southerlies develop. No major data releases are scheduled before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources including MetService and international ensembles indicate Wellington's overnight low on September 24 will likely settle near 7–8°C under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northwesterlies following a southerly change. This aligns with September climatology, where average minimums hover around 7–9°C amid transitional spring conditions that favor radiative cooling on calm nights. Trader consensus reflected in the elevated 46% implied probability for 11°C or higher and the clustering around 6–7°C outcomes stems from model consensus on modest warming trends and limited cold-air advection risk, though updated runs could shift probabilities if stronger southerlies develop. No major data releases are scheduled before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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