Recent cold front advection across southern Brazil has introduced cooler maritime air and elevated cloud cover, suppressing typical nocturnal radiative cooling and driving forecast lows for São Paulo on September 24 into the 10–15 °C range. Numerical models diverge on the precise minimum due to uncertain post-frontal clearing timing and residual moisture, with some ensembles favoring 13 °C or lower under clearer skies while others hold near 15 °C amid lingering showers. This short-term variability, against a September climatological average low near 12 °C, underpins the closely matched market-implied probabilities across the 9–14 °C thresholds as traders weigh the latest model runs and Inmet guidance ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 24?
9°C or below 44%
14°C 44%
19°C or higher 44%
10°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
9°C or below
44%
10°C
40%
11°C
22%
12°C
22%
13°C
25%
14°C
36%
15°C
21%
16°C
20%
17°C
39%
18°C
39%
19°C or higher
44%
9°C or below 44%
14°C 44%
19°C or higher 44%
10°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
9°C or below
$10 Vol.
44%
10°C
$58 Vol.
40%
11°C
$0 Vol.
22%
12°C
$0 Vol.
22%
13°C
$0 Vol.
25%
14°C
$10 Vol.
36%
15°C
$0 Vol.
21%
16°C
$0 Vol.
20%
17°C
$10 Vol.
39%
18°C
$10 Vol.
39%
19°C or higher
$10 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cold front advection across southern Brazil has introduced cooler maritime air and elevated cloud cover, suppressing typical nocturnal radiative cooling and driving forecast lows for São Paulo on September 24 into the 10–15 °C range. Numerical models diverge on the precise minimum due to uncertain post-frontal clearing timing and residual moisture, with some ensembles favoring 13 °C or lower under clearer skies while others hold near 15 °C amid lingering showers. This short-term variability, against a September climatological average low near 12 °C, underpins the closely matched market-implied probabilities across the 9–14 °C thresholds as traders weigh the latest model runs and Inmet guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 8:28 AM ET
Volume
$108End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cold front advection across southern Brazil has introduced cooler maritime air and elevated cloud cover, suppressing typical nocturnal radiative cooling and driving forecast lows for São Paulo on September 24 into the 10–15 °C range. Numerical models diverge on the precise minimum due to uncertain post-frontal clearing timing and residual moisture, with some ensembles favoring 13 °C or lower under clearer skies while others hold near 15 °C amid lingering showers. This short-term variability, against a September climatological average low near 12 °C, underpins the closely matched market-implied probabilities across the 9–14 °C thresholds as traders weigh the latest model runs and Inmet guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$108End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cold front advection across southern Brazil has introduced cooler maritime air and elevated cloud cover, suppressing typical nocturnal radiative cooling and driving forecast lows for São Paulo on September 24 into the 10–15 °C range. Numerical models diverge on the precise minimum due to uncertain post-frontal clearing timing and residual moisture, with some ensembles favoring 13 °C or lower under clearer skies while others hold near 15 °C amid lingering showers. This short-term variability, against a September climatological average low near 12 °C, underpins the closely matched market-implied probabilities across the 9–14 °C thresholds as traders weigh the latest model runs and Inmet guidance ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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