Current forecasts from MetService and supporting models indicate a maximum temperature near 11°C in Wellington on September 23, driven by persistent southerly winds, widespread cloud cover, and light showers that limit daytime warming. This aligns with the market's strong 91% implied probability on 11°C, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing highs clustered in the 9–12°C range amid typical spring conditions. Historical September maxima average around 12–14°C, but the current pattern favors cooler outcomes. A northward shift in steering flow or reduced precipitation could allow readings to reach 13°C or higher, while stronger onshore winds or heavier showers might cap the peak below 10°C; updated model runs overnight will clarify these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 23?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 23?
11°C 92%
12°C 7%
13°C 1.0%
14°C <1%
NEW
$84,701 Vol.
NEW
$84,701 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
92%
12°C
7%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
11°C 92%
12°C 7%
13°C 1.0%
14°C <1%
NEW
$84,701 Vol.
NEW
$84,701 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
5°C or below
$218 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$226 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$277 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$3,157 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$12,522 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$29,556 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$10,111 Vol.
92%
12°C
$13,192 Vol.
7%
13°C
$4,869 Vol.
1%
14°C
$5,838 Vol.
<1%
15°C or higher
$4,998 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from MetService and supporting models indicate a maximum temperature near 11°C in Wellington on September 23, driven by persistent southerly winds, widespread cloud cover, and light showers that limit daytime warming. This aligns with the market's strong 91% implied probability on 11°C, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing highs clustered in the 9–12°C range amid typical spring conditions. Historical September maxima average around 12–14°C, but the current pattern favors cooler outcomes. A northward shift in steering flow or reduced precipitation could allow readings to reach 13°C or higher, while stronger onshore winds or heavier showers might cap the peak below 10°C; updated model runs overnight will clarify these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$84,701End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from MetService and supporting models indicate a maximum temperature near 11°C in Wellington on September 23, driven by persistent southerly winds, widespread cloud cover, and light showers that limit daytime warming. This aligns with the market's strong 91% implied probability on 11°C, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing highs clustered in the 9–12°C range amid typical spring conditions. Historical September maxima average around 12–14°C, but the current pattern favors cooler outcomes. A northward shift in steering flow or reduced precipitation could allow readings to reach 13°C or higher, while stronger onshore winds or heavier showers might cap the peak below 10°C; updated model runs overnight will clarify these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$84,701End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from MetService and supporting models indicate a maximum temperature near 11°C in Wellington on September 23, driven by persistent southerly winds, widespread cloud cover, and light showers that limit daytime warming. This aligns with the market's strong 91% implied probability on 11°C, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble guidance showing highs clustered in the 9–12°C range amid typical spring conditions. Historical September maxima average around 12–14°C, but the current pattern favors cooler outcomes. A northward shift in steering flow or reduced precipitation could allow readings to reach 13°C or higher, while stronger onshore winds or heavier showers might cap the peak below 10°C; updated model runs overnight will clarify these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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