**Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including MetService-aligned outlooks and international models, converge on a daytime maximum of 13°C for Wellington on September 24, 2026, with some runs indicating a possible 12–14°C range under mostly sunny or partly cloudy skies.** A building high-pressure ridge over the Tasman Sea is easing earlier southerly winds into lighter northerlies or variable flows, reducing cloud cover and allowing moderate daytime heating. This aligns with early-spring climatology, where Wellington’s September average high sits near 12.5–14°C. Model consensus shows minimal precipitation risk and light winds, supporting efficient surface warming without strong cold-air advection or frontal passages. Traders have priced 13°C as the clear favorite (60.5% implied probability) and 14°C as the main alternative (31%), reflecting the narrow but real uncertainty in exact peak readings once official observations are recorded. Updated model runs and official briefings in the final 48 hours will be the key catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 24?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 24?
13°C 59%
14°C 33%
12°C 7%
15°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
1%
12°C
7%
13°C
59%
14°C
33%
15°C
3%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 59%
14°C 33%
12°C 7%
15°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
8°C or below
$514 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$311 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$0 Vol.
2%
11°C
$138 Vol.
1%
12°C
$754 Vol.
7%
13°C
$2,093 Vol.
59%
14°C
$3,222 Vol.
33%
15°C
$667 Vol.
3%
16°C
$50 Vol.
2%
17°C
$393 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$95 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including MetService-aligned outlooks and international models, converge on a daytime maximum of 13°C for Wellington on September 24, 2026, with some runs indicating a possible 12–14°C range under mostly sunny or partly cloudy skies.**
A building high-pressure ridge over the Tasman Sea is easing earlier southerly winds into lighter northerlies or variable flows, reducing cloud cover and allowing moderate daytime heating. This aligns with early-spring climatology, where Wellington’s September average high sits near 12.5–14°C. Model consensus shows minimal precipitation risk and light winds, supporting efficient surface warming without strong cold-air advection or frontal passages.
Traders have priced 13°C as the clear favorite (60.5% implied probability) and 14°C as the main alternative (31%), reflecting the narrow but real uncertainty in exact peak readings once official observations are recorded. Updated model runs and official briefings in the final 48 hours will be the key catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$8,212End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including MetService-aligned outlooks and international models, converge on a daytime maximum of 13°C for Wellington on September 24, 2026, with some runs indicating a possible 12–14°C range under mostly sunny or partly cloudy skies.**
A building high-pressure ridge over the Tasman Sea is easing earlier southerly winds into lighter northerlies or variable flows, reducing cloud cover and allowing moderate daytime heating. This aligns with early-spring climatology, where Wellington’s September average high sits near 12.5–14°C. Model consensus shows minimal precipitation risk and light winds, supporting efficient surface warming without strong cold-air advection or frontal passages.
Traders have priced 13°C as the clear favorite (60.5% implied probability) and 14°C as the main alternative (31%), reflecting the narrow but real uncertainty in exact peak readings once official observations are recorded. Updated model runs and official briefings in the final 48 hours will be the key catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,212End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including MetService-aligned outlooks and international models, converge on a daytime maximum of 13°C for Wellington on September 24, 2026, with some runs indicating a possible 12–14°C range under mostly sunny or partly cloudy skies.** A building high-pressure ridge over the Tasman Sea is easing earlier southerly winds into lighter northerlies or variable flows, reducing cloud cover and allowing moderate daytime heating. This aligns with early-spring climatology, where Wellington’s September average high sits near 12.5–14°C. Model consensus shows minimal precipitation risk and light winds, supporting efficient surface warming without strong cold-air advection or frontal passages. Traders have priced 13°C as the clear favorite (60.5% implied probability) and 14°C as the main alternative (31%), reflecting the narrow but real uncertainty in exact peak readings once official observations are recorded. Updated model runs and official briefings in the final 48 hours will be the key catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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