Recent drought conditions across the upper and middle Mississippi River basin, including the 60th-driest August on record and below-normal precipitation through much of 2026, have reduced upstream streamflow and positioned the river for typical seasonal declines through fall. Current Baton Rouge stages near 6.5 ft reflect modest near-term rises from scattered rainfall, yet extended forecasts from the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center show flows trending lower by late November absent significant basin-wide precipitation. Trader emphasis on the 6 ft-or-higher outcome aligns with historical climatology of moderate autumn lows, while uncertainty in ENSO-influenced rainfall patterns and potential flash-drought intensification keep probabilities distributed across the 3–6 ft range. Updated NOAA river outlooks and soil-moisture data releases will likely drive near-term shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30?
Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30?
5.00 to 5.99 ft 16%
Below 3.00 ft 14%
3.00 to 3.99 ft 14%
4.00 to 4.99 ft 13%
NEW
NEW
Dec 1, 2026
Below 3.00 ft
14%
3.00 to 3.99 ft
14%
4.00 to 4.99 ft
13%
5.00 to 5.99 ft
16%
6.00 ft or more
13%
5.00 to 5.99 ft 16%
Below 3.00 ft 14%
3.00 to 3.99 ft 14%
4.00 to 4.99 ft 13%
NEW
NEW
Dec 1, 2026
Below 3.00 ft
$0 Vol.
14%
3.00 to 3.99 ft
$0 Vol.
14%
4.00 to 4.99 ft
$0 Vol.
13%
5.00 to 5.99 ft
$0 Vol.
16%
6.00 ft or more
$140 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at Baton Rouge, LA streamgage (USGS site 07374000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 under statistic code 00003 (daily mean).
The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports gage height to 2 decimal places, and this is the precision used to resolve this market. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4.00 ft resolves the range beginning at 4.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
The resolution source is the USGS Daily Values service for site 07374000, available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07374000¶meterCd=00065&statCd=00003&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered. If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 3.00 ft".Recent drought conditions across the upper and middle Mississippi River basin, including the 60th-driest August on record and below-normal precipitation through much of 2026, have reduced upstream streamflow and positioned the river for typical seasonal declines through fall. Current Baton Rouge stages near 6.5 ft reflect modest near-term rises from scattered rainfall, yet extended forecasts from the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center show flows trending lower by late November absent significant basin-wide precipitation. Trader emphasis on the 6 ft-or-higher outcome aligns with historical climatology of moderate autumn lows, while uncertainty in ENSO-influenced rainfall patterns and potential flash-drought intensification keep probabilities distributed across the 3–6 ft range. Updated NOAA river outlooks and soil-moisture data releases will likely drive near-term shifts.
This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at Baton Rouge, LA streamgage (USGS site 07374000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 under statistic code 00003 (daily mean).
The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports gage height to 2 decimal places, and this is the precision used to resolve this market. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4.00 ft resolves the range beginning at 4.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
The resolution source is the USGS Daily Values service for site 07374000, available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07374000¶meterCd=00065&statCd=00003&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered. If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 3.00 ft".
The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports gage height to 2 decimal places, and this is the precision used to resolve this market. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4.00 ft resolves the range beginning at 4.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
The resolution source is the USGS Daily Values service for site 07374000, available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07374000¶meterCd=00065&statCd=00003&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered. If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 3.00 ft".
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Volume
$140End Date
Dec 2, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:15 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at Baton Rouge, LA streamgage (USGS site 07374000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 under statistic code 00003 (daily mean).
The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports gage height to 2 decimal places, and this is the precision used to resolve this market. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4.00 ft resolves the range beginning at 4.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
The resolution source is the USGS Daily Values service for site 07374000, available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07374000¶meterCd=00065&statCd=00003&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered. If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 3.00 ft".Recent drought conditions across the upper and middle Mississippi River basin, including the 60th-driest August on record and below-normal precipitation through much of 2026, have reduced upstream streamflow and positioned the river for typical seasonal declines through fall. Current Baton Rouge stages near 6.5 ft reflect modest near-term rises from scattered rainfall, yet extended forecasts from the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center show flows trending lower by late November absent significant basin-wide precipitation. Trader emphasis on the 6 ft-or-higher outcome aligns with historical climatology of moderate autumn lows, while uncertainty in ENSO-influenced rainfall patterns and potential flash-drought intensification keep probabilities distributed across the 3–6 ft range. Updated NOAA river outlooks and soil-moisture data releases will likely drive near-term shifts.
This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at Baton Rouge, LA streamgage (USGS site 07374000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 under statistic code 00003 (daily mean).
The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports gage height to 2 decimal places, and this is the precision used to resolve this market. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4.00 ft resolves the range beginning at 4.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
The resolution source is the USGS Daily Values service for site 07374000, available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07374000¶meterCd=00065&statCd=00003&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered. If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 3.00 ft".
The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published.
USGS reports gage height to 2 decimal places, and this is the precision used to resolve this market. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4.00 ft resolves the range beginning at 4.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No".
The resolution source is the USGS Daily Values service for site 07374000, available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07374000¶meterCd=00065&statCd=00003&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb
This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered. If the source is unavailable, this market may be extended to December 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no data for the window is available by then, this market will resolve to "Below 3.00 ft".
Volume
$140End Date
Dec 2, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:15 PM ETRecent drought conditions across the upper and middle Mississippi River basin, including the 60th-driest August on record and below-normal precipitation through much of 2026, have reduced upstream streamflow and positioned the river for typical seasonal declines through fall. Current Baton Rouge stages near 6.5 ft reflect modest near-term rises from scattered rainfall, yet extended forecasts from the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center show flows trending lower by late November absent significant basin-wide precipitation. Trader emphasis on the 6 ft-or-higher outcome aligns with historical climatology of moderate autumn lows, while uncertainty in ENSO-influenced rainfall patterns and potential flash-drought intensification keep probabilities distributed across the 3–6 ft range. Updated NOAA river outlooks and soil-moisture data releases will likely drive near-term shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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