Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting numerical models project a maximum of 25°C for Tokyo on September 23 under persistent cloud cover and periods of light rain driven by a moist air mass and weak pressure trough. These conditions limit daytime heating and align with the market’s strong 90.5% implied probability for 24°C as the daily high. Historical September averages near 25–26°C provide context, yet the current pattern favors suppression of peaks. A faster-than-expected clearance of clouds or stronger southerly flow could allow readings to reach 26°C or higher, though ensemble guidance assigns low odds to such outcomes before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 23?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 23?
24°C 89%
25°C 7%
26°C 4%
27°C 2%
NEW
$36,175 Vol.
NEW
$36,175 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
89%
25°C
7%
26°C
4%
27°C
2%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 89%
25°C 7%
26°C 4%
27°C 2%
NEW
$36,175 Vol.
NEW
$36,175 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
20°C or below
$1,356 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,276 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,211 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$9,076 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$5,384 Vol.
89%
25°C
$5,632 Vol.
7%
26°C
$5,052 Vol.
4%
27°C
$1,911 Vol.
2%
28°C
$734 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$2,700 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$1,843 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting numerical models project a maximum of 25°C for Tokyo on September 23 under persistent cloud cover and periods of light rain driven by a moist air mass and weak pressure trough. These conditions limit daytime heating and align with the market’s strong 90.5% implied probability for 24°C as the daily high. Historical September averages near 25–26°C provide context, yet the current pattern favors suppression of peaks. A faster-than-expected clearance of clouds or stronger southerly flow could allow readings to reach 26°C or higher, though ensemble guidance assigns low odds to such outcomes before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$36,175End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting numerical models project a maximum of 25°C for Tokyo on September 23 under persistent cloud cover and periods of light rain driven by a moist air mass and weak pressure trough. These conditions limit daytime heating and align with the market’s strong 90.5% implied probability for 24°C as the daily high. Historical September averages near 25–26°C provide context, yet the current pattern favors suppression of peaks. A faster-than-expected clearance of clouds or stronger southerly flow could allow readings to reach 26°C or higher, though ensemble guidance assigns low odds to such outcomes before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$36,175End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and supporting numerical models project a maximum of 25°C for Tokyo on September 23 under persistent cloud cover and periods of light rain driven by a moist air mass and weak pressure trough. These conditions limit daytime heating and align with the market’s strong 90.5% implied probability for 24°C as the daily high. Historical September averages near 25–26°C provide context, yet the current pattern favors suppression of peaks. A faster-than-expected clearance of clouds or stronger southerly flow could allow readings to reach 26°C or higher, though ensemble guidance assigns low odds to such outcomes before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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