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icon for All-time Pacific Category 5 hurricane record broken in 2026?

All-time Pacific Category 5 hurricane record broken in 2026?

icon for All-time Pacific Category 5 hurricane record broken in 2026?

All-time Pacific Category 5 hurricane record broken in 2026?

47% chance
Polymarket
NEW
47% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if four or more distinct tropical cyclones are assigned Category 5 intensity while located in the Pacific Ocean north of the equator and east of the International Date Line between January 1, 2026 and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The record for this area is three in a single calendar year. A tropical cyclone is assigned Category 5 intensity when an operational advisory reports a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 157 mph, corresponding to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Operational advisories for this area are issued by the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Each tropical cyclone counts once toward the total, no matter how many advisories or how many separate periods report it at Category 5 intensity. Hurricane Genevieve, Hurricane Lowell and Hurricane Polo have each been assigned Category 5 intensity in 2026 and each count toward this total, so one additional tropical cyclone is required for this market to resolve to "Yes". A tropical cyclone in any other basin, including the Atlantic, will not be considered for resolution. Being assigned Category 5 intensity at any single advisory within this period is sufficient for a tropical cyclone to count, regardless of its intensity at any other time. Once a fourth qualifying tropical cyclone has been reported at Category 5 intensity, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of that storm's subsequent intensity. This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued for a storm while it is active. Any revision to a storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for resolution. If a correction to an advisory is issued to fix a clerical error, the corrected advisory will govern. The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Hurricane Polo's explosive 24-hour intensification to 180 mph winds and 892 mb pressure on September 22 has tied the 2026 eastern Pacific season for a record three Category 5 storms while ranking it second-most intense by central pressure, yet it falls short of Patricia's 2015 benchmark of 215 mph and 872 mb. A strong El Niño pattern has sustained unusually warm sea surface temperatures and low shear, boosting overall activity and accumulated cyclone energy well above average. With the season extending into November, the closely balanced 50% market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether future systems can achieve the extreme rapid intensification needed to surpass historical maxima, as NHC forecasts and reconnaissance data will clarify in coming weeks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if four or more distinct tropical cyclones are assigned Category 5 intensity while located in the Pacific Ocean north of the equator and east of the International Date Line between January 1, 2026 and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The record for this area is three in a single calendar year.

A tropical cyclone is assigned Category 5 intensity when an operational advisory reports a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 157 mph, corresponding to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Operational advisories for this area are issued by the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Each tropical cyclone counts once toward the total, no matter how many advisories or how many separate periods report it at Category 5 intensity. Hurricane Genevieve, Hurricane Lowell and Hurricane Polo have each been assigned Category 5 intensity in 2026 and each count toward this total, so one additional tropical cyclone is required for this market to resolve to "Yes". A tropical cyclone in any other basin, including the Atlantic, will not be considered for resolution.

Being assigned Category 5 intensity at any single advisory within this period is sufficient for a tropical cyclone to count, regardless of its intensity at any other time. Once a fourth qualifying tropical cyclone has been reported at Category 5 intensity, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of that storm's subsequent intensity.

This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued for a storm while it is active. Any revision to a storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for resolution. If a correction to an advisory is issued to fix a clerical error, the corrected advisory will govern.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if four or more distinct tropical cyclones are assigned Category 5 intensity while located in the Pacific Ocean north of the equator and east of the International Date Line between January 1, 2026 and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The record for this area is three in a single calendar year. A tropical cyclone is assigned Category 5 intensity when an operational advisory reports a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 157 mph, corresponding to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Operational advisories for this area are issued by the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Each tropical cyclone counts once toward the total, no matter how many advisories or how many separate periods report it at Category 5 intensity. Hurricane Genevieve, Hurricane Lowell and Hurricane Polo have each been assigned Category 5 intensity in 2026 and each count toward this total, so one additional tropical cyclone is required for this market to resolve to "Yes". A tropical cyclone in any other basin, including the Atlantic, will not be considered for resolution. Being assigned Category 5 intensity at any single advisory within this period is sufficient for a tropical cyclone to count, regardless of its intensity at any other time. Once a fourth qualifying tropical cyclone has been reported at Category 5 intensity, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of that storm's subsequent intensity. This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued for a storm while it is active. Any revision to a storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for resolution. If a correction to an advisory is issued to fix a clerical error, the corrected advisory will govern. The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Dec 1, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 4:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if four or more distinct tropical cyclones are assigned Category 5 intensity while located in the Pacific Ocean north of the equator and east of the International Date Line between January 1, 2026 and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The record for this area is three in a single calendar year. A tropical cyclone is assigned Category 5 intensity when an operational advisory reports a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 157 mph, corresponding to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Operational advisories for this area are issued by the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Each tropical cyclone counts once toward the total, no matter how many advisories or how many separate periods report it at Category 5 intensity. Hurricane Genevieve, Hurricane Lowell and Hurricane Polo have each been assigned Category 5 intensity in 2026 and each count toward this total, so one additional tropical cyclone is required for this market to resolve to "Yes". A tropical cyclone in any other basin, including the Atlantic, will not be considered for resolution. Being assigned Category 5 intensity at any single advisory within this period is sufficient for a tropical cyclone to count, regardless of its intensity at any other time. Once a fourth qualifying tropical cyclone has been reported at Category 5 intensity, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of that storm's subsequent intensity. This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued for a storm while it is active. Any revision to a storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for resolution. If a correction to an advisory is issued to fix a clerical error, the corrected advisory will govern. The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Hurricane Polo's explosive 24-hour intensification to 180 mph winds and 892 mb pressure on September 22 has tied the 2026 eastern Pacific season for a record three Category 5 storms while ranking it second-most intense by central pressure, yet it falls short of Patricia's 2015 benchmark of 215 mph and 872 mb. A strong El Niño pattern has sustained unusually warm sea surface temperatures and low shear, boosting overall activity and accumulated cyclone energy well above average. With the season extending into November, the closely balanced 50% market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether future systems can achieve the extreme rapid intensification needed to surpass historical maxima, as NHC forecasts and reconnaissance data will clarify in coming weeks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if four or more distinct tropical cyclones are assigned Category 5 intensity while located in the Pacific Ocean north of the equator and east of the International Date Line between January 1, 2026 and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The record for this area is three in a single calendar year.

A tropical cyclone is assigned Category 5 intensity when an operational advisory reports a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 157 mph, corresponding to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Operational advisories for this area are issued by the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Each tropical cyclone counts once toward the total, no matter how many advisories or how many separate periods report it at Category 5 intensity. Hurricane Genevieve, Hurricane Lowell and Hurricane Polo have each been assigned Category 5 intensity in 2026 and each count toward this total, so one additional tropical cyclone is required for this market to resolve to "Yes". A tropical cyclone in any other basin, including the Atlantic, will not be considered for resolution.

Being assigned Category 5 intensity at any single advisory within this period is sufficient for a tropical cyclone to count, regardless of its intensity at any other time. Once a fourth qualifying tropical cyclone has been reported at Category 5 intensity, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of that storm's subsequent intensity.

This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued for a storm while it is active. Any revision to a storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for resolution. If a correction to an advisory is issued to fix a clerical error, the corrected advisory will govern.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if four or more distinct tropical cyclones are assigned Category 5 intensity while located in the Pacific Ocean north of the equator and east of the International Date Line between January 1, 2026 and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The record for this area is three in a single calendar year. A tropical cyclone is assigned Category 5 intensity when an operational advisory reports a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 157 mph, corresponding to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Operational advisories for this area are issued by the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Each tropical cyclone counts once toward the total, no matter how many advisories or how many separate periods report it at Category 5 intensity. Hurricane Genevieve, Hurricane Lowell and Hurricane Polo have each been assigned Category 5 intensity in 2026 and each count toward this total, so one additional tropical cyclone is required for this market to resolve to "Yes". A tropical cyclone in any other basin, including the Atlantic, will not be considered for resolution. Being assigned Category 5 intensity at any single advisory within this period is sufficient for a tropical cyclone to count, regardless of its intensity at any other time. Once a fourth qualifying tropical cyclone has been reported at Category 5 intensity, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of that storm's subsequent intensity. This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued for a storm while it is active. Any revision to a storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for resolution. If a correction to an advisory is issued to fix a clerical error, the corrected advisory will govern. The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Dec 1, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 4:47 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"All-time Pacific Category 5 hurricane record broken in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 47% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 47¢, the market collectively assigns a 47% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"All-time Pacific Category 5 hurricane record broken in 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 22, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "All-time Pacific Category 5 hurricane record broken in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "All-time Pacific Category 5 hurricane record broken in 2026?" is 47% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 47% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "All-time Pacific Category 5 hurricane record broken in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.