**Trader sentiment for Wellington's September 23 minimum temperature reflects tight clustering around 5–8°C amid a cool southerly airstream.** Recent model consensus from MetService-aligned sources and global guidance shows overnight lows near 5–7°C under partly cloudy skies with persistent southerlies of 10–15 m/s, limiting radiative cooling but advecting cooler maritime air. Differentiating factors include exact wind speeds and timing of any clearing that could allow temperatures to dip toward 5°C or hold near 8°C, plus minor variations in dew-point depression and cloud cover affecting the diurnal minimum. Historical September averages place overnight lows around 9–10°C, so current guidance represents a notable cool anomaly driven by the high-pressure ridge positioning and upstream cold pool. Updated model runs and official MetService briefings over the next 12–24 hours will likely resolve the narrow spread between these leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 23?
6°C 98%
5°C 97%
3°C or below 70%
8°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
3°C or below
70%
4°C
6%
5°C
97%
6°C
98%
7°C
-
8°C
50%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C or higher
<1%
6°C 98%
5°C 97%
3°C or below 70%
8°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
3°C or below
$100 Vol.
70%
4°C
$40 Vol.
6%
5°C
$8 Vol.
97%
6°C
$0 Vol.
98%
7°C
$3 Vol.
-
8°C
$0 Vol.
50%
9°C
$38 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$194 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$200 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$215 Vol.
<1%
13°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Wellington's September 23 minimum temperature reflects tight clustering around 5–8°C amid a cool southerly airstream.** Recent model consensus from MetService-aligned sources and global guidance shows overnight lows near 5–7°C under partly cloudy skies with persistent southerlies of 10–15 m/s, limiting radiative cooling but advecting cooler maritime air. Differentiating factors include exact wind speeds and timing of any clearing that could allow temperatures to dip toward 5°C or hold near 8°C, plus minor variations in dew-point depression and cloud cover affecting the diurnal minimum. Historical September averages place overnight lows around 9–10°C, so current guidance represents a notable cool anomaly driven by the high-pressure ridge positioning and upstream cold pool. Updated model runs and official MetService briefings over the next 12–24 hours will likely resolve the narrow spread between these leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$813End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Wellington's September 23 minimum temperature reflects tight clustering around 5–8°C amid a cool southerly airstream.** Recent model consensus from MetService-aligned sources and global guidance shows overnight lows near 5–7°C under partly cloudy skies with persistent southerlies of 10–15 m/s, limiting radiative cooling but advecting cooler maritime air. Differentiating factors include exact wind speeds and timing of any clearing that could allow temperatures to dip toward 5°C or hold near 8°C, plus minor variations in dew-point depression and cloud cover affecting the diurnal minimum. Historical September averages place overnight lows around 9–10°C, so current guidance represents a notable cool anomaly driven by the high-pressure ridge positioning and upstream cold pool. Updated model runs and official MetService briefings over the next 12–24 hours will likely resolve the narrow spread between these leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$813End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Wellington's September 23 minimum temperature reflects tight clustering around 5–8°C amid a cool southerly airstream.** Recent model consensus from MetService-aligned sources and global guidance shows overnight lows near 5–7°C under partly cloudy skies with persistent southerlies of 10–15 m/s, limiting radiative cooling but advecting cooler maritime air. Differentiating factors include exact wind speeds and timing of any clearing that could allow temperatures to dip toward 5°C or hold near 8°C, plus minor variations in dew-point depression and cloud cover affecting the diurnal minimum. Historical September averages place overnight lows around 9–10°C, so current guidance represents a notable cool anomaly driven by the high-pressure ridge positioning and upstream cold pool. Updated model runs and official MetService briefings over the next 12–24 hours will likely resolve the narrow spread between these leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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