Recent model guidance from agencies including MetService and NIWA indicates Wellington will experience a transitional late-winter pattern on 27 August, with a high-pressure ridge favoring mainly fine conditions and northwesterly flow moderating temperatures after earlier cold outbreaks. This setup supports daytime maxima near 14–15 °C and overnight minima most likely between 9–12 °C, aligning with August climatology of average lows around 10.5–11 °C. Ensemble spreads in short-range forecasts introduce uncertainty in exact radiative cooling under clear skies versus any residual maritime influence, keeping probabilities closely clustered around 9–11 °C. Seasonal outlooks assign roughly equal chances of near- or above-average temperatures for the Wellington region through October, but the two-day lead time means traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs over broader indices.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on August 27?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 27?
8°C 77%
9°C 30%
10°C 29%
11°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
5°C or below
11%
6°C
19%
7°C
24%
8°C
77%
9°C
30%
10°C
29%
11°C
25%
12°C
8%
13°C
8%
14°C
8%
15°C or higher
2%
8°C 77%
9°C 30%
10°C 29%
11°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
11%
6°C
$0 Vol.
19%
7°C
$0 Vol.
24%
8°C
$0 Vol.
77%
9°C
$0 Vol.
30%
10°C
$0 Vol.
29%
11°C
$0 Vol.
25%
12°C
$0 Vol.
8%
13°C
$0 Vol.
8%
14°C
$0 Vol.
8%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance from agencies including MetService and NIWA indicates Wellington will experience a transitional late-winter pattern on 27 August, with a high-pressure ridge favoring mainly fine conditions and northwesterly flow moderating temperatures after earlier cold outbreaks. This setup supports daytime maxima near 14–15 °C and overnight minima most likely between 9–12 °C, aligning with August climatology of average lows around 10.5–11 °C. Ensemble spreads in short-range forecasts introduce uncertainty in exact radiative cooling under clear skies versus any residual maritime influence, keeping probabilities closely clustered around 9–11 °C. Seasonal outlooks assign roughly equal chances of near- or above-average temperatures for the Wellington region through October, but the two-day lead time means traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs over broader indices.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance from agencies including MetService and NIWA indicates Wellington will experience a transitional late-winter pattern on 27 August, with a high-pressure ridge favoring mainly fine conditions and northwesterly flow moderating temperatures after earlier cold outbreaks. This setup supports daytime maxima near 14–15 °C and overnight minima most likely between 9–12 °C, aligning with August climatology of average lows around 10.5–11 °C. Ensemble spreads in short-range forecasts introduce uncertainty in exact radiative cooling under clear skies versus any residual maritime influence, keeping probabilities closely clustered around 9–11 °C. Seasonal outlooks assign roughly equal chances of near- or above-average temperatures for the Wellington region through October, but the two-day lead time means traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs over broader indices.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model guidance from agencies including MetService and NIWA indicates Wellington will experience a transitional late-winter pattern on 27 August, with a high-pressure ridge favoring mainly fine conditions and northwesterly flow moderating temperatures after earlier cold outbreaks. This setup supports daytime maxima near 14–15 °C and overnight minima most likely between 9–12 °C, aligning with August climatology of average lows around 10.5–11 °C. Ensemble spreads in short-range forecasts introduce uncertainty in exact radiative cooling under clear skies versus any residual maritime influence, keeping probabilities closely clustered around 9–11 °C. Seasonal outlooks assign roughly equal chances of near- or above-average temperatures for the Wellington region through October, but the two-day lead time means traders are weighting the latest deterministic and ensemble runs over broader indices.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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