The market's near-certainty in a 17°C high for Wellington on August 25 reflects the latest official forecast consensus from MetService and NIWA models, driven by a warm northerly airflow advecting milder maritime air over the region amid late-winter conditions. Historical August averages for the capital hover near 12–15°C, but current guidance shows this setup pushing daytime maxima firmly into the upper teens without significant cooling from cloud cover, rain, or southerly shifts. Trader positioning aligns with real-time observational data and ensemble agreement that minimize downside risks. A late-day wind reversal or unexpected frontal passage could still trim the peak by 1–2°C, though such shifts appear unlikely within the final hours before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
17°C 99.9%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$48,275 Vol.
$48,275 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
100%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
17°C 99.9%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$48,275 Vol.
$48,275 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
10°C or below
$650 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$628 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$239 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,724 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$4,042 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$7,345 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$14,776 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$8,741 Vol.
100%
18°C
$8,352 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$238 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$1,541 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's near-certainty in a 17°C high for Wellington on August 25 reflects the latest official forecast consensus from MetService and NIWA models, driven by a warm northerly airflow advecting milder maritime air over the region amid late-winter conditions. Historical August averages for the capital hover near 12–15°C, but current guidance shows this setup pushing daytime maxima firmly into the upper teens without significant cooling from cloud cover, rain, or southerly shifts. Trader positioning aligns with real-time observational data and ensemble agreement that minimize downside risks. A late-day wind reversal or unexpected frontal passage could still trim the peak by 1–2°C, though such shifts appear unlikely within the final hours before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$48,275End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's near-certainty in a 17°C high for Wellington on August 25 reflects the latest official forecast consensus from MetService and NIWA models, driven by a warm northerly airflow advecting milder maritime air over the region amid late-winter conditions. Historical August averages for the capital hover near 12–15°C, but current guidance shows this setup pushing daytime maxima firmly into the upper teens without significant cooling from cloud cover, rain, or southerly shifts. Trader positioning aligns with real-time observational data and ensemble agreement that minimize downside risks. A late-day wind reversal or unexpected frontal passage could still trim the peak by 1–2°C, though such shifts appear unlikely within the final hours before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$48,275End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market's near-certainty in a 17°C high for Wellington on August 25 reflects the latest official forecast consensus from MetService and NIWA models, driven by a warm northerly airflow advecting milder maritime air over the region amid late-winter conditions. Historical August averages for the capital hover near 12–15°C, but current guidance shows this setup pushing daytime maxima firmly into the upper teens without significant cooling from cloud cover, rain, or southerly shifts. Trader positioning aligns with real-time observational data and ensemble agreement that minimize downside risks. A late-day wind reversal or unexpected frontal passage could still trim the peak by 1–2°C, though such shifts appear unlikely within the final hours before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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