Current meteorological forecasts from MetService and supporting models position a 13–14°C maximum as the most probable outcome for Wellington on August 27, reflecting near-average winter conditions under strengthening El Niño-driven southwesterly flows that favor cooler air advection and cloud cover. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA indicate temperatures are most likely near the long-term August average of roughly 12–13°C, with recent model runs showing limited diurnal warming due to expected showers and moderate winds. Forecast uncertainty remains moderate given potential shifts in steering patterns or clearer breaks that could allow brief spikes toward 15°C, though probabilities drop sharply above that threshold. Updated guidance ahead of the date will refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 27?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 27?
14°C 44%
13°C 35%
15°C 14%
12°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
5%
13°C
35%
14°C
44%
15°C
14%
16°C
3%
17°C
3%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 44%
13°C 35%
15°C 14%
12°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
8°C or below
$281 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$225 Vol.
1%
11°C
$52 Vol.
2%
12°C
$0 Vol.
5%
13°C
$37 Vol.
35%
14°C
$10 Vol.
44%
15°C
$99 Vol.
14%
16°C
$0 Vol.
3%
17°C
$0 Vol.
3%
18°C or higher
$125 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological forecasts from MetService and supporting models position a 13–14°C maximum as the most probable outcome for Wellington on August 27, reflecting near-average winter conditions under strengthening El Niño-driven southwesterly flows that favor cooler air advection and cloud cover. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA indicate temperatures are most likely near the long-term August average of roughly 12–13°C, with recent model runs showing limited diurnal warming due to expected showers and moderate winds. Forecast uncertainty remains moderate given potential shifts in steering patterns or clearer breaks that could allow brief spikes toward 15°C, though probabilities drop sharply above that threshold. Updated guidance ahead of the date will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$955End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological forecasts from MetService and supporting models position a 13–14°C maximum as the most probable outcome for Wellington on August 27, reflecting near-average winter conditions under strengthening El Niño-driven southwesterly flows that favor cooler air advection and cloud cover. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA indicate temperatures are most likely near the long-term August average of roughly 12–13°C, with recent model runs showing limited diurnal warming due to expected showers and moderate winds. Forecast uncertainty remains moderate given potential shifts in steering patterns or clearer breaks that could allow brief spikes toward 15°C, though probabilities drop sharply above that threshold. Updated guidance ahead of the date will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$955End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current meteorological forecasts from MetService and supporting models position a 13–14°C maximum as the most probable outcome for Wellington on August 27, reflecting near-average winter conditions under strengthening El Niño-driven southwesterly flows that favor cooler air advection and cloud cover. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA indicate temperatures are most likely near the long-term August average of roughly 12–13°C, with recent model runs showing limited diurnal warming due to expected showers and moderate winds. Forecast uncertainty remains moderate given potential shifts in steering patterns or clearer breaks that could allow brief spikes toward 15°C, though probabilities drop sharply above that threshold. Updated guidance ahead of the date will refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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