Recent MetService and international model guidance shows Wellington experiencing stable high-pressure conditions with overnight radiative cooling limited by cloud cover and northerly flow, producing a consensus minimum of 12 °C at official observing sites. Historical August climatology places typical lows near 9–11 °C, yet current sea-surface temperatures and the absence of southerly outbreaks have kept surface temperatures elevated. Trader consensus at 94.5 % for 12 °C reflects this strong forecast agreement, with only marginal probabilities assigned to cooler outcomes that would require an unforecasted frontal passage. A late-model run introducing stronger radiative cooling or localized katabatic drainage could still shift the recorded minimum, though such revisions appear unlikely before final observations close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
12°C 97%
11°C 4%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
8°C or below
1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
4%
12°C
97%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
12°C 97%
11°C 4%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
8°C or below
$376 Vol.
1%
9°C
$297 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$250 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$22 Vol.
4%
12°C
$126 Vol.
97%
13°C
$401 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$265 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$893 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$205 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$733 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$528 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and international model guidance shows Wellington experiencing stable high-pressure conditions with overnight radiative cooling limited by cloud cover and northerly flow, producing a consensus minimum of 12 °C at official observing sites. Historical August climatology places typical lows near 9–11 °C, yet current sea-surface temperatures and the absence of southerly outbreaks have kept surface temperatures elevated. Trader consensus at 94.5 % for 12 °C reflects this strong forecast agreement, with only marginal probabilities assigned to cooler outcomes that would require an unforecasted frontal passage. A late-model run introducing stronger radiative cooling or localized katabatic drainage could still shift the recorded minimum, though such revisions appear unlikely before final observations close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$4,097End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService and international model guidance shows Wellington experiencing stable high-pressure conditions with overnight radiative cooling limited by cloud cover and northerly flow, producing a consensus minimum of 12 °C at official observing sites. Historical August climatology places typical lows near 9–11 °C, yet current sea-surface temperatures and the absence of southerly outbreaks have kept surface temperatures elevated. Trader consensus at 94.5 % for 12 °C reflects this strong forecast agreement, with only marginal probabilities assigned to cooler outcomes that would require an unforecasted frontal passage. A late-model run introducing stronger radiative cooling or localized katabatic drainage could still shift the recorded minimum, though such revisions appear unlikely before final observations close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,097End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent MetService and international model guidance shows Wellington experiencing stable high-pressure conditions with overnight radiative cooling limited by cloud cover and northerly flow, producing a consensus minimum of 12 °C at official observing sites. Historical August climatology places typical lows near 9–11 °C, yet current sea-surface temperatures and the absence of southerly outbreaks have kept surface temperatures elevated. Trader consensus at 94.5 % for 12 °C reflects this strong forecast agreement, with only marginal probabilities assigned to cooler outcomes that would require an unforecasted frontal passage. A late-model run introducing stronger radiative cooling or localized katabatic drainage could still shift the recorded minimum, though such revisions appear unlikely before final observations close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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