**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a Tokyo high of 34°C on August 25, 2026, under mostly clear morning skies transitioning to scattered afternoon clouds with light southerly flow.** This aligns with recent observations showing afternoon readings near 33–34°C and typical late-summer conditions where solar heating peaks without extreme advection or subsidence. The market-implied 99.4% probability for exactly 34°C reflects traders’ confidence in official station data converging on this threshold rather than higher values. A sudden shift to clearer skies with stronger insolation or a forecast revision could push readings to 35°C, while unexpected cloud cover or showers might cap the maximum below it.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
34°C 99.6%
35°C <1%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
$71,195 Vol.
$71,195 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
100%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 99.6%
35°C <1%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
$71,195 Vol.
$71,195 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
29°C or below
$1,990 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$587 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,850 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$3,959 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$11,663 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$10,904 Vol.
100%
35°C
$6,844 Vol.
1%
36°C
$5,793 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$5,341 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$2,397 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$19,868 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a Tokyo high of 34°C on August 25, 2026, under mostly clear morning skies transitioning to scattered afternoon clouds with light southerly flow.** This aligns with recent observations showing afternoon readings near 33–34°C and typical late-summer conditions where solar heating peaks without extreme advection or subsidence. The market-implied 99.4% probability for exactly 34°C reflects traders’ confidence in official station data converging on this threshold rather than higher values. A sudden shift to clearer skies with stronger insolation or a forecast revision could push readings to 35°C, while unexpected cloud cover or showers might cap the maximum below it.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$71,195End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a Tokyo high of 34°C on August 25, 2026, under mostly clear morning skies transitioning to scattered afternoon clouds with light southerly flow.** This aligns with recent observations showing afternoon readings near 33–34°C and typical late-summer conditions where solar heating peaks without extreme advection or subsidence. The market-implied 99.4% probability for exactly 34°C reflects traders’ confidence in official station data converging on this threshold rather than higher values. A sudden shift to clearer skies with stronger insolation or a forecast revision could push readings to 35°C, while unexpected cloud cover or showers might cap the maximum below it.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$71,195End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models points to a Tokyo high of 34°C on August 25, 2026, under mostly clear morning skies transitioning to scattered afternoon clouds with light southerly flow.** This aligns with recent observations showing afternoon readings near 33–34°C and typical late-summer conditions where solar heating peaks without extreme advection or subsidence. The market-implied 99.4% probability for exactly 34°C reflects traders’ confidence in official station data converging on this threshold rather than higher values. A sudden shift to clearer skies with stronger insolation or a forecast revision could push readings to 35°C, while unexpected cloud cover or showers might cap the maximum below it.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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