Wellington's lowest temperature on August 26 is expected to hinge on overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and persistent northwesterly winds channeling air across Cook Strait. Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a daytime high near 13–14°C with an early-morning minimum likely between 11–12°C, consistent with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those levels and modest support for 11°C or 14°C outcomes. Warmer-than-average regional sea surface temperatures and a neutral-to-weak La Niña pattern have limited southerly Antarctic outbreaks in recent weeks, reducing the chance of sharper drops below 10°C, while gusty conditions prevent strong inversions that could otherwise drive lower readings. Updated model runs and official MetService guidance ahead of the overnight period will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 26?
9°C 49%
12°C 29%
11°C 27%
14°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
8°C or below
1%
9°C
49%
10°C
12%
11°C
27%
12°C
29%
13°C
25%
14°C
26%
15°C
4%
16°C
<1%
17°C
4%
18°C or higher
<1%
9°C 49%
12°C 29%
11°C 27%
14°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
8°C or below
$15 Vol.
1%
9°C
$55 Vol.
49%
10°C
$10 Vol.
12%
11°C
$0 Vol.
27%
12°C
$0 Vol.
29%
13°C
$0 Vol.
25%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$85 Vol.
4%
16°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$15 Vol.
4%
18°C or higher
$150 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington's lowest temperature on August 26 is expected to hinge on overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and persistent northwesterly winds channeling air across Cook Strait. Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a daytime high near 13–14°C with an early-morning minimum likely between 11–12°C, consistent with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those levels and modest support for 11°C or 14°C outcomes. Warmer-than-average regional sea surface temperatures and a neutral-to-weak La Niña pattern have limited southerly Antarctic outbreaks in recent weeks, reducing the chance of sharper drops below 10°C, while gusty conditions prevent strong inversions that could otherwise drive lower readings. Updated model runs and official MetService guidance ahead of the overnight period will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$336End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington's lowest temperature on August 26 is expected to hinge on overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and persistent northwesterly winds channeling air across Cook Strait. Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a daytime high near 13–14°C with an early-morning minimum likely between 11–12°C, consistent with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those levels and modest support for 11°C or 14°C outcomes. Warmer-than-average regional sea surface temperatures and a neutral-to-weak La Niña pattern have limited southerly Antarctic outbreaks in recent weeks, reducing the chance of sharper drops below 10°C, while gusty conditions prevent strong inversions that could otherwise drive lower readings. Updated model runs and official MetService guidance ahead of the overnight period will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$336End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wellington's lowest temperature on August 26 is expected to hinge on overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and persistent northwesterly winds channeling air across Cook Strait. Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a daytime high near 13–14°C with an early-morning minimum likely between 11–12°C, consistent with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those levels and modest support for 11°C or 14°C outcomes. Warmer-than-average regional sea surface temperatures and a neutral-to-weak La Niña pattern have limited southerly Antarctic outbreaks in recent weeks, reducing the chance of sharper drops below 10°C, while gusty conditions prevent strong inversions that could otherwise drive lower readings. Updated model runs and official MetService guidance ahead of the overnight period will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions