Recent forecasts from global models like GFS indicate Madrid's high on August 25 will likely peak near 26–28°C under mostly cloudy skies and southwesterly flow, limiting solar heating compared with typical August conditions near 31°C. Persistent Atlantic moisture and increased cloud cover have suppressed temperatures in recent days, creating tight clustering around these values while rendering 34°C+ or sub-25°C outcomes improbable. Model consensus on exact afternoon maxima remains sensitive to small shifts in cloud timing and wind strength, sustaining balanced trader positions across the 26–33°C range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 25?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 25?
28°C 43%
29°C 34%
27°C 15%
30°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
24°C or below
3%
25°C
1%
26°C
7%
27°C
15%
28°C
43%
29°C
34%
30°C
8%
31°C
6%
32°C
4%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
2%
28°C 43%
29°C 34%
27°C 15%
30°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
24°C or below
$15 Vol.
3%
25°C
$0 Vol.
1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
7%
27°C
$0 Vol.
15%
28°C
$15 Vol.
43%
29°C
$0 Vol.
34%
30°C
$10 Vol.
8%
31°C
$4 Vol.
6%
32°C
$0 Vol.
4%
33°C
$0 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global models like GFS indicate Madrid's high on August 25 will likely peak near 26–28°C under mostly cloudy skies and southwesterly flow, limiting solar heating compared with typical August conditions near 31°C. Persistent Atlantic moisture and increased cloud cover have suppressed temperatures in recent days, creating tight clustering around these values while rendering 34°C+ or sub-25°C outcomes improbable. Model consensus on exact afternoon maxima remains sensitive to small shifts in cloud timing and wind strength, sustaining balanced trader positions across the 26–33°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$44End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global models like GFS indicate Madrid's high on August 25 will likely peak near 26–28°C under mostly cloudy skies and southwesterly flow, limiting solar heating compared with typical August conditions near 31°C. Persistent Atlantic moisture and increased cloud cover have suppressed temperatures in recent days, creating tight clustering around these values while rendering 34°C+ or sub-25°C outcomes improbable. Model consensus on exact afternoon maxima remains sensitive to small shifts in cloud timing and wind strength, sustaining balanced trader positions across the 26–33°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$44End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from global models like GFS indicate Madrid's high on August 25 will likely peak near 26–28°C under mostly cloudy skies and southwesterly flow, limiting solar heating compared with typical August conditions near 31°C. Persistent Atlantic moisture and increased cloud cover have suppressed temperatures in recent days, creating tight clustering around these values while rendering 34°C+ or sub-25°C outcomes improbable. Model consensus on exact afternoon maxima remains sensitive to small shifts in cloud timing and wind strength, sustaining balanced trader positions across the 26–33°C range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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