Recent ensemble model runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET indicate a moderating Atlantic-influenced air mass over central Iberia, producing forecast highs clustered near 24–25 °C for Madrid on 27 August. This aligns with the seasonal late-August decline from mid-month peaks above 30 °C and explains the tight market spread favoring those two bins. Key variables include steering flow around an approaching trough, boundary-layer moisture, and diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies; minor shifts in any could tip the peak across the 25 °C threshold. Updated high-resolution guidance and official AEMET briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 27?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 27?
25°C 37%
24°C 35%
26°C 22%
27°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
21°C or below
5%
22°C
6%
23°C
6%
24°C
35%
25°C
37%
26°C
22%
27°C
16%
28°C
7%
29°C
5%
30°C
4%
31°C or higher
3%
25°C 37%
24°C 35%
26°C 22%
27°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
21°C or below
$87 Vol.
5%
22°C
$0 Vol.
6%
23°C
$50 Vol.
6%
24°C
$114 Vol.
35%
25°C
$18 Vol.
37%
26°C
$43 Vol.
22%
27°C
$0 Vol.
16%
28°C
$0 Vol.
7%
29°C
$0 Vol.
5%
30°C
$0 Vol.
4%
31°C or higher
$24 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble model runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET indicate a moderating Atlantic-influenced air mass over central Iberia, producing forecast highs clustered near 24–25 °C for Madrid on 27 August. This aligns with the seasonal late-August decline from mid-month peaks above 30 °C and explains the tight market spread favoring those two bins. Key variables include steering flow around an approaching trough, boundary-layer moisture, and diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies; minor shifts in any could tip the peak across the 25 °C threshold. Updated high-resolution guidance and official AEMET briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$337End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble model runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET indicate a moderating Atlantic-influenced air mass over central Iberia, producing forecast highs clustered near 24–25 °C for Madrid on 27 August. This aligns with the seasonal late-August decline from mid-month peaks above 30 °C and explains the tight market spread favoring those two bins. Key variables include steering flow around an approaching trough, boundary-layer moisture, and diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies; minor shifts in any could tip the peak across the 25 °C threshold. Updated high-resolution guidance and official AEMET briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$337End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble model runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Spain’s AEMET indicate a moderating Atlantic-influenced air mass over central Iberia, producing forecast highs clustered near 24–25 °C for Madrid on 27 August. This aligns with the seasonal late-August decline from mid-month peaks above 30 °C and explains the tight market spread favoring those two bins. Key variables include steering flow around an approaching trough, boundary-layer moisture, and diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies; minor shifts in any could tip the peak across the 25 °C threshold. Updated high-resolution guidance and official AEMET briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions