Recent forecasts from major models indicate clear skies and light northeasterly winds over Warsaw on August 26, promoting efficient overnight radiative cooling that favors a minimum near 11°C. This aligns with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 10–13°C, where traders weigh subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed that can shift the low by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology places typical overnight lows near 12–13°C, but current guidance shows slightly cooler conditions due to reduced cloud cover compared with recent days. Model consensus remains moderate given divergence in exact timing of the minimum and local urban heat effects, with final resolution hinging on official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 26?
11°C 32%
12°C 28%
13°C 22%
10°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
7°C or below
16%
8°C
6%
9°C
10%
10°C
21%
11°C
32%
12°C
28%
13°C
22%
14°C
8%
15°C
8%
16°C
5%
17°C or higher
2%
11°C 32%
12°C 28%
13°C 22%
10°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
7°C or below
$5 Vol.
16%
8°C
$95 Vol.
6%
9°C
$0 Vol.
10%
10°C
$0 Vol.
21%
11°C
$0 Vol.
32%
12°C
$0 Vol.
28%
13°C
$0 Vol.
22%
14°C
$40 Vol.
8%
15°C
$0 Vol.
8%
16°C
$70 Vol.
5%
17°C or higher
$135 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from major models indicate clear skies and light northeasterly winds over Warsaw on August 26, promoting efficient overnight radiative cooling that favors a minimum near 11°C. This aligns with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 10–13°C, where traders weigh subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed that can shift the low by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology places typical overnight lows near 12–13°C, but current guidance shows slightly cooler conditions due to reduced cloud cover compared with recent days. Model consensus remains moderate given divergence in exact timing of the minimum and local urban heat effects, with final resolution hinging on official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$345End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from major models indicate clear skies and light northeasterly winds over Warsaw on August 26, promoting efficient overnight radiative cooling that favors a minimum near 11°C. This aligns with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 10–13°C, where traders weigh subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed that can shift the low by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology places typical overnight lows near 12–13°C, but current guidance shows slightly cooler conditions due to reduced cloud cover compared with recent days. Model consensus remains moderate given divergence in exact timing of the minimum and local urban heat effects, with final resolution hinging on official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$345End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from major models indicate clear skies and light northeasterly winds over Warsaw on August 26, promoting efficient overnight radiative cooling that favors a minimum near 11°C. This aligns with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 10–13°C, where traders weigh subtle differences in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed that can shift the low by 1–2°C. Historical August climatology places typical overnight lows near 12–13°C, but current guidance shows slightly cooler conditions due to reduced cloud cover compared with recent days. Model consensus remains moderate given divergence in exact timing of the minimum and local urban heat effects, with final resolution hinging on official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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