**High-pressure dominance over central Europe, with a strengthening anticyclone advecting warmer continental air masses, underpins trader consensus around 22–23 °C as Warsaw’s likely daily maximum on 26 August.** Official Polish IMGW guidance and multiple global models (GFS, ECMWF) show mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly flow, and negligible precipitation risk, allowing modest daytime heating from seasonal insolation without strong advection or mixing. Current surface analyses indicate dew points in the low teens and surface pressures near 1022–1024 hPa, supporting efficient radiative warming but capping extremes. Ensemble spreads remain narrow for this short-range window, with only minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing; any late-day cloud increase or slight wind shift could trim the peak by 1 °C. Updated runs overnight will refine the exact maximum, yet the prevailing pattern favors the current market-implied range over higher or lower outliers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 26?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 26?
23°C 48%
22°C 32%
24°C 13%
21°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
2%
21°C
5%
22°C
32%
23°C
48%
24°C
13%
25°C
3%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
23°C 48%
22°C 32%
24°C 13%
21°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
17°C or below
$200 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$198 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$314 Vol.
2%
21°C
$278 Vol.
5%
22°C
$382 Vol.
32%
23°C
$368 Vol.
48%
24°C
$1,249 Vol.
13%
25°C
$276 Vol.
3%
26°C
$238 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$41 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**High-pressure dominance over central Europe, with a strengthening anticyclone advecting warmer continental air masses, underpins trader consensus around 22–23 °C as Warsaw’s likely daily maximum on 26 August.** Official Polish IMGW guidance and multiple global models (GFS, ECMWF) show mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly flow, and negligible precipitation risk, allowing modest daytime heating from seasonal insolation without strong advection or mixing. Current surface analyses indicate dew points in the low teens and surface pressures near 1022–1024 hPa, supporting efficient radiative warming but capping extremes. Ensemble spreads remain narrow for this short-range window, with only minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing; any late-day cloud increase or slight wind shift could trim the peak by 1 °C. Updated runs overnight will refine the exact maximum, yet the prevailing pattern favors the current market-implied range over higher or lower outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$3,655End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**High-pressure dominance over central Europe, with a strengthening anticyclone advecting warmer continental air masses, underpins trader consensus around 22–23 °C as Warsaw’s likely daily maximum on 26 August.** Official Polish IMGW guidance and multiple global models (GFS, ECMWF) show mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly flow, and negligible precipitation risk, allowing modest daytime heating from seasonal insolation without strong advection or mixing. Current surface analyses indicate dew points in the low teens and surface pressures near 1022–1024 hPa, supporting efficient radiative warming but capping extremes. Ensemble spreads remain narrow for this short-range window, with only minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing; any late-day cloud increase or slight wind shift could trim the peak by 1 °C. Updated runs overnight will refine the exact maximum, yet the prevailing pattern favors the current market-implied range over higher or lower outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,655End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**High-pressure dominance over central Europe, with a strengthening anticyclone advecting warmer continental air masses, underpins trader consensus around 22–23 °C as Warsaw’s likely daily maximum on 26 August.** Official Polish IMGW guidance and multiple global models (GFS, ECMWF) show mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly flow, and negligible precipitation risk, allowing modest daytime heating from seasonal insolation without strong advection or mixing. Current surface analyses indicate dew points in the low teens and surface pressures near 1022–1024 hPa, supporting efficient radiative warming but capping extremes. Ensemble spreads remain narrow for this short-range window, with only minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing; any late-day cloud increase or slight wind shift could trim the peak by 1 °C. Updated runs overnight will refine the exact maximum, yet the prevailing pattern favors the current market-implied range over higher or lower outliers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions