Persistent cloud cover and high humidity from monsoon-driven convection are limiting overnight radiative cooling in Shenzhen, keeping minimum temperatures elevated near the climatological August average of 25°C. Latest model consensus from global forecasting centers points to lows of 26–28°C on August 26 amid widespread thunderstorms and dew points near 25–26°C, which reduce the diurnal temperature range. These conditions create the strongest scientific support for the 26–28°C outcomes that together hold roughly 70% combined market-implied probability. Fragmented trader positioning, including substantial weight on the 32°C-or-higher bin, reflects uncertainty around exact station measurements, possible short-term forecast shifts, and the inherent spread in ensemble guidance for boundary-layer moisture. Final CMA and local agency updates overnight will provide the last observational constraints before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 26?
22°C or below 57%
32°C or higher 34.8%
28°C 26%
29°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
57%
23°C
16%
24°C
9%
25°C
22%
26°C
23%
27°C
25%
28°C
26%
29°C
26%
30°C
16%
31°C
15%
32°C or higher
35%
22°C or below 57%
32°C or higher 34.8%
28°C 26%
29°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
$135 Vol.
57%
23°C
$145 Vol.
16%
24°C
$42 Vol.
9%
25°C
$10 Vol.
22%
26°C
$10 Vol.
23%
27°C
$0 Vol.
25%
28°C
$0 Vol.
26%
29°C
$0 Vol.
26%
30°C
$150 Vol.
16%
31°C
$135 Vol.
15%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover and high humidity from monsoon-driven convection are limiting overnight radiative cooling in Shenzhen, keeping minimum temperatures elevated near the climatological August average of 25°C. Latest model consensus from global forecasting centers points to lows of 26–28°C on August 26 amid widespread thunderstorms and dew points near 25–26°C, which reduce the diurnal temperature range. These conditions create the strongest scientific support for the 26–28°C outcomes that together hold roughly 70% combined market-implied probability. Fragmented trader positioning, including substantial weight on the 32°C-or-higher bin, reflects uncertainty around exact station measurements, possible short-term forecast shifts, and the inherent spread in ensemble guidance for boundary-layer moisture. Final CMA and local agency updates overnight will provide the last observational constraints before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$627End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover and high humidity from monsoon-driven convection are limiting overnight radiative cooling in Shenzhen, keeping minimum temperatures elevated near the climatological August average of 25°C. Latest model consensus from global forecasting centers points to lows of 26–28°C on August 26 amid widespread thunderstorms and dew points near 25–26°C, which reduce the diurnal temperature range. These conditions create the strongest scientific support for the 26–28°C outcomes that together hold roughly 70% combined market-implied probability. Fragmented trader positioning, including substantial weight on the 32°C-or-higher bin, reflects uncertainty around exact station measurements, possible short-term forecast shifts, and the inherent spread in ensemble guidance for boundary-layer moisture. Final CMA and local agency updates overnight will provide the last observational constraints before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$627End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent cloud cover and high humidity from monsoon-driven convection are limiting overnight radiative cooling in Shenzhen, keeping minimum temperatures elevated near the climatological August average of 25°C. Latest model consensus from global forecasting centers points to lows of 26–28°C on August 26 amid widespread thunderstorms and dew points near 25–26°C, which reduce the diurnal temperature range. These conditions create the strongest scientific support for the 26–28°C outcomes that together hold roughly 70% combined market-implied probability. Fragmented trader positioning, including substantial weight on the 32°C-or-higher bin, reflects uncertainty around exact station measurements, possible short-term forecast shifts, and the inherent spread in ensemble guidance for boundary-layer moisture. Final CMA and local agency updates overnight will provide the last observational constraints before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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