Recent official forecasts from sources including the National Meteorological Center indicate thundershowers and cloud cover over Shenzhen on August 26, limiting daytime heating in the Pearl River Delta's humid subtropical regime. These conditions, combined with typical late-August sea-breeze effects and high humidity near 80%, favor a daily maximum near 30–32 °C rather than the seasonal extremes above 34 °C. Model consensus shows modest variability tied to exact rainfall timing, which explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31 °C (35%) and 30 °C (25%), with 32 °C close behind. Historical climatology for the period reinforces this narrow range absent a stronger tropical system. Updated model runs and local observations expected overnight will be the next key inputs for market movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 26?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 26?
31°C 35%
30°C 24%
32°C 23%
29°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
10%
30°C
24%
31°C
35%
32°C
23%
33°C
8%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 35%
30°C 24%
32°C 23%
29°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
25°C or below
$543 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$155 Vol.
2%
27°C
$963 Vol.
1%
28°C
$503 Vol.
3%
29°C
$539 Vol.
10%
30°C
$1,410 Vol.
24%
31°C
$1,090 Vol.
35%
32°C
$172 Vol.
23%
33°C
$354 Vol.
8%
34°C
$232 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$109 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including the National Meteorological Center indicate thundershowers and cloud cover over Shenzhen on August 26, limiting daytime heating in the Pearl River Delta's humid subtropical regime. These conditions, combined with typical late-August sea-breeze effects and high humidity near 80%, favor a daily maximum near 30–32 °C rather than the seasonal extremes above 34 °C. Model consensus shows modest variability tied to exact rainfall timing, which explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31 °C (35%) and 30 °C (25%), with 32 °C close behind. Historical climatology for the period reinforces this narrow range absent a stronger tropical system. Updated model runs and local observations expected overnight will be the next key inputs for market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$6,069End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including the National Meteorological Center indicate thundershowers and cloud cover over Shenzhen on August 26, limiting daytime heating in the Pearl River Delta's humid subtropical regime. These conditions, combined with typical late-August sea-breeze effects and high humidity near 80%, favor a daily maximum near 30–32 °C rather than the seasonal extremes above 34 °C. Model consensus shows modest variability tied to exact rainfall timing, which explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31 °C (35%) and 30 °C (25%), with 32 °C close behind. Historical climatology for the period reinforces this narrow range absent a stronger tropical system. Updated model runs and local observations expected overnight will be the next key inputs for market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,069End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from sources including the National Meteorological Center indicate thundershowers and cloud cover over Shenzhen on August 26, limiting daytime heating in the Pearl River Delta's humid subtropical regime. These conditions, combined with typical late-August sea-breeze effects and high humidity near 80%, favor a daily maximum near 30–32 °C rather than the seasonal extremes above 34 °C. Model consensus shows modest variability tied to exact rainfall timing, which explains why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 31 °C (35%) and 30 °C (25%), with 32 °C close behind. Historical climatology for the period reinforces this narrow range absent a stronger tropical system. Updated model runs and local observations expected overnight will be the next key inputs for market movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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