Official forecasts indicate overnight lows near 26–27°C in Shenzhen on August 25 amid widespread thunderstorms and high humidity, with model guidance from sources such as timeanddate.com and the UK Met Office showing limited diurnal cooling under persistent cloud cover. This atmospheric setup, typical of the South China Sea monsoon regime in late August, favors the market clustering around 26–27°C outcomes while the leading 45.5% implied probability on 23°C or below captures uncertainty from variable rainfall intensity and potential short-term model spreads. Historical August baselines average 26°C lows, and no major tropical systems are currently steering cooler air into the region. Updated numerical weather prediction runs and local observations will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 25?
23°C or below 93%
33°C or higher 48%
30°C 46%
32°C 46%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
93%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
27%
27°C
30%
28°C
24%
29°C
24%
30°C
46%
31°C
2%
32°C
46%
33°C or higher
48%
23°C or below 93%
33°C or higher 48%
30°C 46%
32°C 46%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
23°C or below
$5 Vol.
93%
24°C
$0 Vol.
26%
25°C
$0 Vol.
26%
26°C
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$0 Vol.
30%
28°C
$0 Vol.
24%
29°C
$0 Vol.
24%
30°C
$5 Vol.
46%
31°C
$5 Vol.
2%
32°C
$5 Vol.
46%
33°C or higher
$5 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts indicate overnight lows near 26–27°C in Shenzhen on August 25 amid widespread thunderstorms and high humidity, with model guidance from sources such as timeanddate.com and the UK Met Office showing limited diurnal cooling under persistent cloud cover. This atmospheric setup, typical of the South China Sea monsoon regime in late August, favors the market clustering around 26–27°C outcomes while the leading 45.5% implied probability on 23°C or below captures uncertainty from variable rainfall intensity and potential short-term model spreads. Historical August baselines average 26°C lows, and no major tropical systems are currently steering cooler air into the region. Updated numerical weather prediction runs and local observations will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts indicate overnight lows near 26–27°C in Shenzhen on August 25 amid widespread thunderstorms and high humidity, with model guidance from sources such as timeanddate.com and the UK Met Office showing limited diurnal cooling under persistent cloud cover. This atmospheric setup, typical of the South China Sea monsoon regime in late August, favors the market clustering around 26–27°C outcomes while the leading 45.5% implied probability on 23°C or below captures uncertainty from variable rainfall intensity and potential short-term model spreads. Historical August baselines average 26°C lows, and no major tropical systems are currently steering cooler air into the region. Updated numerical weather prediction runs and local observations will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts indicate overnight lows near 26–27°C in Shenzhen on August 25 amid widespread thunderstorms and high humidity, with model guidance from sources such as timeanddate.com and the UK Met Office showing limited diurnal cooling under persistent cloud cover. This atmospheric setup, typical of the South China Sea monsoon regime in late August, favors the market clustering around 26–27°C outcomes while the leading 45.5% implied probability on 23°C or below captures uncertainty from variable rainfall intensity and potential short-term model spreads. Historical August baselines average 26°C lows, and no major tropical systems are currently steering cooler air into the region. Updated numerical weather prediction runs and local observations will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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