Recent forecast guidance from global and regional models points to a minimum temperature in São Paulo on September 23 near 13–14°C, driven by a strengthening southeasterly flow and associated cloud cover and light rain that limit radiational cooling while suppressing daytime maxima. This aligns with the month’s cooler-than-average pattern so far and typical late-spring climatology, where overnight lows commonly range 12–16°C under similar synoptic setups. Trader-implied probabilities remain tightly clustered because ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty in exact timing of the frontal passage and boundary-layer moisture, with official INMET station readings serving as the resolution source. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 24 hours will likely refine the narrowest bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 23?
8°C or below 49%
14°C 43%
18°C or higher 43%
13°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
8°C or below
49%
9°C
10%
10°C
9%
11°C
21%
12°C
18%
13°C
29%
14°C
37%
15°C
22%
16°C
20%
17°C
3%
18°C or higher
43%
8°C or below 49%
14°C 43%
18°C or higher 43%
13°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
8°C or below
$50 Vol.
49%
9°C
$40 Vol.
10%
10°C
$8 Vol.
9%
11°C
$0 Vol.
21%
12°C
$0 Vol.
18%
13°C
$0 Vol.
29%
14°C
$23 Vol.
37%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
20%
17°C
$25 Vol.
3%
18°C or higher
$100 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from global and regional models points to a minimum temperature in São Paulo on September 23 near 13–14°C, driven by a strengthening southeasterly flow and associated cloud cover and light rain that limit radiational cooling while suppressing daytime maxima. This aligns with the month’s cooler-than-average pattern so far and typical late-spring climatology, where overnight lows commonly range 12–16°C under similar synoptic setups. Trader-implied probabilities remain tightly clustered because ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty in exact timing of the frontal passage and boundary-layer moisture, with official INMET station readings serving as the resolution source. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 24 hours will likely refine the narrowest bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$247End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from global and regional models points to a minimum temperature in São Paulo on September 23 near 13–14°C, driven by a strengthening southeasterly flow and associated cloud cover and light rain that limit radiational cooling while suppressing daytime maxima. This aligns with the month’s cooler-than-average pattern so far and typical late-spring climatology, where overnight lows commonly range 12–16°C under similar synoptic setups. Trader-implied probabilities remain tightly clustered because ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty in exact timing of the frontal passage and boundary-layer moisture, with official INMET station readings serving as the resolution source. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 24 hours will likely refine the narrowest bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$247End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from global and regional models points to a minimum temperature in São Paulo on September 23 near 13–14°C, driven by a strengthening southeasterly flow and associated cloud cover and light rain that limit radiational cooling while suppressing daytime maxima. This aligns with the month’s cooler-than-average pattern so far and typical late-spring climatology, where overnight lows commonly range 12–16°C under similar synoptic setups. Trader-implied probabilities remain tightly clustered because ensemble spreads show modest uncertainty in exact timing of the frontal passage and boundary-layer moisture, with official INMET station readings serving as the resolution source. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 24 hours will likely refine the narrowest bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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