A cold front advancing across southern Brazil on September 22, 2026, is the primary driver behind trader positioning, with models showing a sharp drop from prior highs near 31–32°C to daytime maxima around 22–23°C and overnight lows in the mid-teens. Official guidance from agencies like INMET and international models (GFS, ECMWF) converge on minimum temperatures of 13–17°C, with variations arising from exact frontal timing, sustained southerly winds enhancing cooling, and widespread cloud cover plus rainfall (20–35 mm expected) limiting overnight radiative heat loss. Historical September minima in São Paulo average near 12–15°C, but the current setup favors values clustering around 15–17°C as the most probable outcomes given model spread and ongoing precipitation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 22?
14°C or below 99%
16°C 51%
17°C 51%
15°C 50%
$302 Vol.
$302 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
14°C or below
99%
15°C
50%
16°C
51%
17°C
51%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
14°C or below 99%
16°C 51%
17°C 51%
15°C 50%
$302 Vol.
$302 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
99%
15°C
$0 Vol.
50%
16°C
$0 Vol.
51%
17°C
$3 Vol.
51%
18°C
$55 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$116 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$78 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$20 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cold front advancing across southern Brazil on September 22, 2026, is the primary driver behind trader positioning, with models showing a sharp drop from prior highs near 31–32°C to daytime maxima around 22–23°C and overnight lows in the mid-teens. Official guidance from agencies like INMET and international models (GFS, ECMWF) converge on minimum temperatures of 13–17°C, with variations arising from exact frontal timing, sustained southerly winds enhancing cooling, and widespread cloud cover plus rainfall (20–35 mm expected) limiting overnight radiative heat loss. Historical September minima in São Paulo average near 12–15°C, but the current setup favors values clustering around 15–17°C as the most probable outcomes given model spread and ongoing precipitation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$302End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cold front advancing across southern Brazil on September 22, 2026, is the primary driver behind trader positioning, with models showing a sharp drop from prior highs near 31–32°C to daytime maxima around 22–23°C and overnight lows in the mid-teens. Official guidance from agencies like INMET and international models (GFS, ECMWF) converge on minimum temperatures of 13–17°C, with variations arising from exact frontal timing, sustained southerly winds enhancing cooling, and widespread cloud cover plus rainfall (20–35 mm expected) limiting overnight radiative heat loss. Historical September minima in São Paulo average near 12–15°C, but the current setup favors values clustering around 15–17°C as the most probable outcomes given model spread and ongoing precipitation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$302End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...A cold front advancing across southern Brazil on September 22, 2026, is the primary driver behind trader positioning, with models showing a sharp drop from prior highs near 31–32°C to daytime maxima around 22–23°C and overnight lows in the mid-teens. Official guidance from agencies like INMET and international models (GFS, ECMWF) converge on minimum temperatures of 13–17°C, with variations arising from exact frontal timing, sustained southerly winds enhancing cooling, and widespread cloud cover plus rainfall (20–35 mm expected) limiting overnight radiative heat loss. Historical September minima in São Paulo average near 12–15°C, but the current setup favors values clustering around 15–17°C as the most probable outcomes given model spread and ongoing precipitation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions