Recent forecasts from models including GFS and Met Office guidance point to a cold front passage suppressing daytime heating in São Paulo, with persistent cloud cover, southeasterly winds, and light rain expected to limit the September 23 maximum to the 14–17 °C range. This represents a notable departure from the month’s typical 23–25 °C highs, driven by increased low-level moisture and reduced insolation. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds aligns closely with these model outputs, placing the highest probability on 16 °C while assigning meaningful weight to 15 °C and 17 °C outcomes. Updated model runs and official INMET briefings over the next 24 hours will provide the next key data points for refining resolution expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 23?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 23?
16°C 40%
17°C 29%
15°C 19%
18°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
13°C or below
2%
14°C
5%
15°C
19%
16°C
40%
17°C
29%
18°C
9%
19°C
3%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
16°C 40%
17°C 29%
15°C 19%
18°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
13°C or below
$176 Vol.
2%
14°C
$124 Vol.
5%
15°C
$840 Vol.
19%
16°C
$564 Vol.
40%
17°C
$526 Vol.
29%
18°C
$626 Vol.
9%
19°C
$289 Vol.
3%
20°C
$267 Vol.
1%
21°C
$682 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,677 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$2,475 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS and Met Office guidance point to a cold front passage suppressing daytime heating in São Paulo, with persistent cloud cover, southeasterly winds, and light rain expected to limit the September 23 maximum to the 14–17 °C range. This represents a notable departure from the month’s typical 23–25 °C highs, driven by increased low-level moisture and reduced insolation. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds aligns closely with these model outputs, placing the highest probability on 16 °C while assigning meaningful weight to 15 °C and 17 °C outcomes. Updated model runs and official INMET briefings over the next 24 hours will provide the next key data points for refining resolution expectations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$8,236End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS and Met Office guidance point to a cold front passage suppressing daytime heating in São Paulo, with persistent cloud cover, southeasterly winds, and light rain expected to limit the September 23 maximum to the 14–17 °C range. This represents a notable departure from the month’s typical 23–25 °C highs, driven by increased low-level moisture and reduced insolation. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds aligns closely with these model outputs, placing the highest probability on 16 °C while assigning meaningful weight to 15 °C and 17 °C outcomes. Updated model runs and official INMET briefings over the next 24 hours will provide the next key data points for refining resolution expectations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,236End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models including GFS and Met Office guidance point to a cold front passage suppressing daytime heating in São Paulo, with persistent cloud cover, southeasterly winds, and light rain expected to limit the September 23 maximum to the 14–17 °C range. This represents a notable departure from the month’s typical 23–25 °C highs, driven by increased low-level moisture and reduced insolation. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds aligns closely with these model outputs, placing the highest probability on 16 °C while assigning meaningful weight to 15 °C and 17 °C outcomes. Updated model runs and official INMET briefings over the next 24 hours will provide the next key data points for refining resolution expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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