Recent National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco indicate a low near 56–58°F on September 24, driven by a warming ridge aloft that has elevated daytime highs into the low 70s while marine air and light winds keep overnight temperatures from dropping sharply. This aligns with the 56–57°F bin holding the highest market-implied probability, as typical September coastal lows average 55–56°F and current model consensus shows limited cooling potential before a trough arrives Friday. Traders appear focused on the narrow range around seasonal norms, with lower-probability bins for sub-52°F or 60°F+ reflecting the low likelihood of strong offshore flow or deeper marine-layer intrusion in the next 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 24?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 24?
49°F or below 86%
56-57°F 47%
68°F or higher 44%
50-51°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
49°F or below
86%
50-51°F
39%
52-53°F
21%
54-55°F
23%
56-57°F
47%
58-59°F
23%
60-61°F
22%
62-63°F
20%
64-65°F
39%
66-67°F
39%
68°F or higher
44%
49°F or below 86%
56-57°F 47%
68°F or higher 44%
50-51°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
49°F or below
$10 Vol.
86%
50-51°F
$10 Vol.
39%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
21%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
23%
56-57°F
$28 Vol.
47%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
23%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
22%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
20%
64-65°F
$10 Vol.
39%
66-67°F
$10 Vol.
39%
68°F or higher
$10 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco indicate a low near 56–58°F on September 24, driven by a warming ridge aloft that has elevated daytime highs into the low 70s while marine air and light winds keep overnight temperatures from dropping sharply. This aligns with the 56–57°F bin holding the highest market-implied probability, as typical September coastal lows average 55–56°F and current model consensus shows limited cooling potential before a trough arrives Friday. Traders appear focused on the narrow range around seasonal norms, with lower-probability bins for sub-52°F or 60°F+ reflecting the low likelihood of strong offshore flow or deeper marine-layer intrusion in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$78End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco indicate a low near 56–58°F on September 24, driven by a warming ridge aloft that has elevated daytime highs into the low 70s while marine air and light winds keep overnight temperatures from dropping sharply. This aligns with the 56–57°F bin holding the highest market-implied probability, as typical September coastal lows average 55–56°F and current model consensus shows limited cooling potential before a trough arrives Friday. Traders appear focused on the narrow range around seasonal norms, with lower-probability bins for sub-52°F or 60°F+ reflecting the low likelihood of strong offshore flow or deeper marine-layer intrusion in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$78End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco indicate a low near 56–58°F on September 24, driven by a warming ridge aloft that has elevated daytime highs into the low 70s while marine air and light winds keep overnight temperatures from dropping sharply. This aligns with the 56–57°F bin holding the highest market-implied probability, as typical September coastal lows average 55–56°F and current model consensus shows limited cooling potential before a trough arrives Friday. Traders appear focused on the narrow range around seasonal norms, with lower-probability bins for sub-52°F or 60°F+ reflecting the low likelihood of strong offshore flow or deeper marine-layer intrusion in the next 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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