Official National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco on September 23 indicate a minimum temperature near 56°F under partly cloudy to clear conditions following patchy morning fog. This aligns with the seasonal average low of 55.7°F and reflects typical late-September marine layer moderation from the Pacific, which limits overnight cooling while preventing extreme drops. Recent September observations have shown similar 55–58°F nighttime readings without significant deviations from climatology. Trader consensus, reflected in the dominant 56–57°F bin at over 50% implied probability, tracks these model outputs closely, though minor forecast adjustments from updated runs or microclimate variations at official stations could shift resolution within the 54–59°F range. Overnight data releases will provide the final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 23?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 23?
56-57°F 59%
58-59°F 24%
60-61°F 24%
54-55°F 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
47°F or below
10%
48-49°F
1%
50-51°F
10%
52-53°F
19%
54-55°F
22%
56-57°F
54%
58-59°F
24%
60-61°F
24%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
2%
66°F or higher
10%
56-57°F 59%
58-59°F 24%
60-61°F 24%
54-55°F 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
47°F or below
$41 Vol.
10%
48-49°F
$51 Vol.
1%
50-51°F
$58 Vol.
10%
52-53°F
$36 Vol.
19%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
22%
56-57°F
$117 Vol.
54%
58-59°F
$104 Vol.
24%
60-61°F
$10 Vol.
24%
62-63°F
$20 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$65 Vol.
2%
66°F or higher
$110 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco on September 23 indicate a minimum temperature near 56°F under partly cloudy to clear conditions following patchy morning fog. This aligns with the seasonal average low of 55.7°F and reflects typical late-September marine layer moderation from the Pacific, which limits overnight cooling while preventing extreme drops. Recent September observations have shown similar 55–58°F nighttime readings without significant deviations from climatology. Trader consensus, reflected in the dominant 56–57°F bin at over 50% implied probability, tracks these model outputs closely, though minor forecast adjustments from updated runs or microclimate variations at official stations could shift resolution within the 54–59°F range. Overnight data releases will provide the final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$612End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco on September 23 indicate a minimum temperature near 56°F under partly cloudy to clear conditions following patchy morning fog. This aligns with the seasonal average low of 55.7°F and reflects typical late-September marine layer moderation from the Pacific, which limits overnight cooling while preventing extreme drops. Recent September observations have shown similar 55–58°F nighttime readings without significant deviations from climatology. Trader consensus, reflected in the dominant 56–57°F bin at over 50% implied probability, tracks these model outputs closely, though minor forecast adjustments from updated runs or microclimate variations at official stations could shift resolution within the 54–59°F range. Overnight data releases will provide the final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$612End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco on September 23 indicate a minimum temperature near 56°F under partly cloudy to clear conditions following patchy morning fog. This aligns with the seasonal average low of 55.7°F and reflects typical late-September marine layer moderation from the Pacific, which limits overnight cooling while preventing extreme drops. Recent September observations have shown similar 55–58°F nighttime readings without significant deviations from climatology. Trader consensus, reflected in the dominant 56–57°F bin at over 50% implied probability, tracks these model outputs closely, though minor forecast adjustments from updated runs or microclimate variations at official stations could shift resolution within the 54–59°F range. Overnight data releases will provide the final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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