**Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts position the overnight minimum in San Francisco near 56°F, driven by a stable marine layer, light west-to-southwest winds, and partly to mostly clear skies that allow efficient radiational cooling under typical late-September coastal conditions.** This aligns with the historical average low of 55.7°F for the date and recent model consensus showing little deviation. The dominant 56-57°F market outcome reflects traders’ assessment of forecast convergence and low uncertainty in the final hours before resolution, while the modest probabilities assigned to 52-55°F bins capture residual potential for marginally stronger cooling if cloud cover decreases or winds weaken further. Warmer bins carry negligible implied odds given the absence of any advective warming or marine-layer disruption.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 22?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 22?
52-53°F 91%
56-57°F 86%
51°F or below 39%
54-55°F 26%
$1,282 Vol.
$1,282 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
51°F or below
39%
52-53°F
91%
54-55°F
26%
56-57°F
86%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70°F or higher
<1%
52-53°F 91%
56-57°F 86%
51°F or below 39%
54-55°F 26%
$1,282 Vol.
$1,282 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
51°F or below
$25 Vol.
39%
52-53°F
$73 Vol.
91%
54-55°F
$33 Vol.
26%
56-57°F
$558 Vol.
86%
58-59°F
$283 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$145 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$25 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$35 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$35 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$35 Vol.
<1%
70°F or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts position the overnight minimum in San Francisco near 56°F, driven by a stable marine layer, light west-to-southwest winds, and partly to mostly clear skies that allow efficient radiational cooling under typical late-September coastal conditions.** This aligns with the historical average low of 55.7°F for the date and recent model consensus showing little deviation. The dominant 56-57°F market outcome reflects traders’ assessment of forecast convergence and low uncertainty in the final hours before resolution, while the modest probabilities assigned to 52-55°F bins capture residual potential for marginally stronger cooling if cloud cover decreases or winds weaken further. Warmer bins carry negligible implied odds given the absence of any advective warming or marine-layer disruption.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,282End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts position the overnight minimum in San Francisco near 56°F, driven by a stable marine layer, light west-to-southwest winds, and partly to mostly clear skies that allow efficient radiational cooling under typical late-September coastal conditions.** This aligns with the historical average low of 55.7°F for the date and recent model consensus showing little deviation. The dominant 56-57°F market outcome reflects traders’ assessment of forecast convergence and low uncertainty in the final hours before resolution, while the modest probabilities assigned to 52-55°F bins capture residual potential for marginally stronger cooling if cloud cover decreases or winds weaken further. Warmer bins carry negligible implied odds given the absence of any advective warming or marine-layer disruption.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,282End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts position the overnight minimum in San Francisco near 56°F, driven by a stable marine layer, light west-to-southwest winds, and partly to mostly clear skies that allow efficient radiational cooling under typical late-September coastal conditions.** This aligns with the historical average low of 55.7°F for the date and recent model consensus showing little deviation. The dominant 56-57°F market outcome reflects traders’ assessment of forecast convergence and low uncertainty in the final hours before resolution, while the modest probabilities assigned to 52-55°F bins capture residual potential for marginally stronger cooling if cloud cover decreases or winds weaken further. Warmer bins carry negligible implied odds given the absence of any advective warming or marine-layer disruption.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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