National Weather Service forecasts and supporting NOAA model runs point to a peak temperature of 66-67°F in San Francisco today, driven by a persistent marine layer that moderates coastal conditions in late September. This narrow range aligns with typical climatological baselines for the date, where onshore flow and stratus keep readings from rising further. Traders have placed overwhelming weight on this outcome because short-range guidance shows minimal variability and no strong warming signals. A sudden fog clearance or offshore wind shift could push readings into the upper 60s, but current observations and ensemble consistency make that scenario unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 22?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 22?
66-67°F 99%
68-69°F 3%
72-73°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$29,328 Vol.
$29,328 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
61°F or below
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
99%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80°F or higher
<1%
66-67°F 99%
68-69°F 3%
72-73°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$29,328 Vol.
$29,328 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
61°F or below
$1,500 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$1,780 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$4,536 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$3,974 Vol.
99%
68-69°F
$4,661 Vol.
3%
70-71°F
$4,529 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$4,363 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$3,050 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$731 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$99 Vol.
<1%
80°F or higher
$105 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and supporting NOAA model runs point to a peak temperature of 66-67°F in San Francisco today, driven by a persistent marine layer that moderates coastal conditions in late September. This narrow range aligns with typical climatological baselines for the date, where onshore flow and stratus keep readings from rising further. Traders have placed overwhelming weight on this outcome because short-range guidance shows minimal variability and no strong warming signals. A sudden fog clearance or offshore wind shift could push readings into the upper 60s, but current observations and ensemble consistency make that scenario unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$29,328End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and supporting NOAA model runs point to a peak temperature of 66-67°F in San Francisco today, driven by a persistent marine layer that moderates coastal conditions in late September. This narrow range aligns with typical climatological baselines for the date, where onshore flow and stratus keep readings from rising further. Traders have placed overwhelming weight on this outcome because short-range guidance shows minimal variability and no strong warming signals. A sudden fog clearance or offshore wind shift could push readings into the upper 60s, but current observations and ensemble consistency make that scenario unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$29,328End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts and supporting NOAA model runs point to a peak temperature of 66-67°F in San Francisco today, driven by a persistent marine layer that moderates coastal conditions in late September. This narrow range aligns with typical climatological baselines for the date, where onshore flow and stratus keep readings from rising further. Traders have placed overwhelming weight on this outcome because short-range guidance shows minimal variability and no strong warming signals. A sudden fog clearance or offshore wind shift could push readings into the upper 60s, but current observations and ensemble consistency make that scenario unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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