**Trader consensus at 99.6% for a daily minimum of 14°C or below reflects official observational data from Madrid weather stations confirming the day's lowest temperature has already fallen to or below this threshold.** Clear skies overnight promoted strong radiative cooling under high pressure, with surface temperatures dropping sharply after sunset amid low humidity and light winds, consistent with late-September climatology for the region. Model consensus from sources such as GFS and ECMWF aligned with station readings showing overnight lows well under 14°C by the evening of September 22. The only realistic challenges would involve a revised official minimum from a specific reference station exceeding 14°C due to microclimate differences or measurement timing, though current verified observations make this highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 22?
14°C or below 100.0%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$458 Vol.
$458 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
14°C or below
100%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
14°C or below 100.0%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$458 Vol.
$458 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
14°C or below
$230 Vol.
100%
16°C
$55 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$23 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 99.6% for a daily minimum of 14°C or below reflects official observational data from Madrid weather stations confirming the day's lowest temperature has already fallen to or below this threshold.** Clear skies overnight promoted strong radiative cooling under high pressure, with surface temperatures dropping sharply after sunset amid low humidity and light winds, consistent with late-September climatology for the region. Model consensus from sources such as GFS and ECMWF aligned with station readings showing overnight lows well under 14°C by the evening of September 22. The only realistic challenges would involve a revised official minimum from a specific reference station exceeding 14°C due to microclimate differences or measurement timing, though current verified observations make this highly improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$458End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 99.6% for a daily minimum of 14°C or below reflects official observational data from Madrid weather stations confirming the day's lowest temperature has already fallen to or below this threshold.** Clear skies overnight promoted strong radiative cooling under high pressure, with surface temperatures dropping sharply after sunset amid low humidity and light winds, consistent with late-September climatology for the region. Model consensus from sources such as GFS and ECMWF aligned with station readings showing overnight lows well under 14°C by the evening of September 22. The only realistic challenges would involve a revised official minimum from a specific reference station exceeding 14°C due to microclimate differences or measurement timing, though current verified observations make this highly improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$458End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus at 99.6% for a daily minimum of 14°C or below reflects official observational data from Madrid weather stations confirming the day's lowest temperature has already fallen to or below this threshold.** Clear skies overnight promoted strong radiative cooling under high pressure, with surface temperatures dropping sharply after sunset amid low humidity and light winds, consistent with late-September climatology for the region. Model consensus from sources such as GFS and ECMWF aligned with station readings showing overnight lows well under 14°C by the evening of September 22. The only realistic challenges would involve a revised official minimum from a specific reference station exceeding 14°C due to microclimate differences or measurement timing, though current verified observations make this highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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