Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on September 24 will likely fall in the 16–18°C range under clear, high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly winds and low humidity promoting modest overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with the strong market-implied odds for 16°C or below as the leading outcome, while the elevated probability attached to 26°C or higher reflects residual uncertainty in model consensus around daytime heat retention. Historical September averages near 14°C provide context, but recent stable synoptic patterns and absence of frontal systems support the current warmer bias. Updated short-range model runs and official AEMET briefings in the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points that could shift trader sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 24?
26°C or higher 96%
16°C or below 87%
19°C 38%
17°C 37%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
16°C or below
87%
17°C
37%
18°C
37%
19°C
38%
20°C
17%
21°C
14%
22°C
17%
23°C
2%
24°C
2%
25°C
2%
26°C or higher
96%
26°C or higher 96%
16°C or below 87%
19°C 38%
17°C 37%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
16°C or below
$35 Vol.
87%
17°C
$0 Vol.
37%
18°C
$0 Vol.
37%
19°C
$0 Vol.
38%
20°C
$0 Vol.
17%
21°C
$0 Vol.
14%
22°C
$0 Vol.
17%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
2%
25°C
$0 Vol.
2%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on September 24 will likely fall in the 16–18°C range under clear, high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly winds and low humidity promoting modest overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with the strong market-implied odds for 16°C or below as the leading outcome, while the elevated probability attached to 26°C or higher reflects residual uncertainty in model consensus around daytime heat retention. Historical September averages near 14°C provide context, but recent stable synoptic patterns and absence of frontal systems support the current warmer bias. Updated short-range model runs and official AEMET briefings in the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points that could shift trader sentiment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$35End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on September 24 will likely fall in the 16–18°C range under clear, high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly winds and low humidity promoting modest overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with the strong market-implied odds for 16°C or below as the leading outcome, while the elevated probability attached to 26°C or higher reflects residual uncertainty in model consensus around daytime heat retention. Historical September averages near 14°C provide context, but recent stable synoptic patterns and absence of frontal systems support the current warmer bias. Updated short-range model runs and official AEMET briefings in the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points that could shift trader sentiment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$35End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on September 24 will likely fall in the 16–18°C range under clear, high-pressure conditions with light northeasterly winds and low humidity promoting modest overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with the strong market-implied odds for 16°C or below as the leading outcome, while the elevated probability attached to 26°C or higher reflects residual uncertainty in model consensus around daytime heat retention. Historical September averages near 14°C provide context, but recent stable synoptic patterns and absence of frontal systems support the current warmer bias. Updated short-range model runs and official AEMET briefings in the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points that could shift trader sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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