Recent forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF consensus indicate a peak daytime high near 34°C in Madrid on September 24 under stable high pressure, clear skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover, supporting the market's leading 59.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. This aligns with a late-summer warming trend and exceeds the 1991–2020 average high of about 25°C while approaching but not exceeding the all-time September 24 record of 32.4°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of model guidance around 33–35°C, with low precipitation risk reinforcing limited downside variance ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 24?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 24?
34°C 59%
35°C 33%
33°C 10%
32°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
10%
34°C
59%
35°C
33%
36°C
2%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 59%
35°C 33%
33°C 10%
32°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
29°C or below
$635 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$748 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$118 Vol.
1%
32°C
$350 Vol.
2%
33°C
$1,491 Vol.
10%
34°C
$2,711 Vol.
59%
35°C
$2,169 Vol.
33%
36°C
$588 Vol.
2%
37°C
$115 Vol.
1%
38°C
$570 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$213 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF consensus indicate a peak daytime high near 34°C in Madrid on September 24 under stable high pressure, clear skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover, supporting the market's leading 59.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. This aligns with a late-summer warming trend and exceeds the 1991–2020 average high of about 25°C while approaching but not exceeding the all-time September 24 record of 32.4°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of model guidance around 33–35°C, with low precipitation risk reinforcing limited downside variance ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$9,708End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF consensus indicate a peak daytime high near 34°C in Madrid on September 24 under stable high pressure, clear skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover, supporting the market's leading 59.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. This aligns with a late-summer warming trend and exceeds the 1991–2020 average high of about 25°C while approaching but not exceeding the all-time September 24 record of 32.4°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of model guidance around 33–35°C, with low precipitation risk reinforcing limited downside variance ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,708End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources including GFS and ECMWF consensus indicate a peak daytime high near 34°C in Madrid on September 24 under stable high pressure, clear skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover, supporting the market's leading 59.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. This aligns with a late-summer warming trend and exceeds the 1991–2020 average high of about 25°C while approaching but not exceeding the all-time September 24 record of 32.4°C. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of model guidance around 33–35°C, with low precipitation risk reinforcing limited downside variance ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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